We dropped like crazy yesterday and still no Fear

Be careful

I meant to respond to this yesterday. The VIX does NOT measure fear. It often corresponds to such, but it's just a measure of implied volatility, and this can shift for any number of reasons, many of which totally unrelated to sentiment. The reason that a really high VIX often implies a low is that it represents big, abnormal premium for the programmers to exploit. They can make it a self-fulfilling prophesy. Mark

I meant to respond to this yesterday.

The VIX does NOT measure fear. It often corresponds to such, but it's just a measure of implied volatility, and this can shift for any number of reasons, many of which totally unrelated to sentiment.

The reason that a really high VIX often implies a low is that it represents big, abnormal premium for the programmers to exploit. They can make it a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Mark

I see but I belive the "Psychology" of it is important.

I guess I'm saying that there is no psychology. The VIX right now could be fairly low because big smart money is selling puts--puts that they don't care will be exercised because they have tons of cash that they need to put to work anyway, and more is coming. It's not measuring confidence or fear. The P/C ratios are helpful on that front. they show smart money buying and dumb money all Beared up. Rydex isn't, showing much excess, however. Hulbert's advisers are now net short which has been a good marker for lows. II is still too Bullish, but we've got plenty of Bearishness to support a sharp rally. All we need is price to confirm.

I guess I'm saying that there is no psychology.

The VIX right now could be fairly low because big smart money is selling puts--puts that they don't care will be exercised because they have tons of cash that they need to put to work anyway, and more is coming. It's not measuring confidence or fear.

The P/C ratios are helpful on that front. they show smart money buying and dumb money all Beared up. Rydex isn't, showing much excess, however.

Hulbert's advisers are now net short which has been a good marker for lows.

II is still too Bullish, but we've got plenty of Bearishness to support a sharp rally. All we need is price to confirm.

Interesting ! Thank you. But aside from that there are host of bottom picking going on with very little fear. I support this fact from threads on this board and other boards. This is not to be construed negatively just what I am seeing. I said this couple of weeks ago on this board, it ain't going to be that easy to get the bottom picked.

I guess I'm saying that there is no psychology.

The VIX right now could be fairly low because big smart money is selling puts--puts that they don't care will be exercised because they have tons of cash that they need to put to work anyway, and more is coming. It's not measuring confidence or fear.

The P/C ratios are helpful on that front. they show smart money buying and dumb money all Beared up. Rydex isn't, showing much excess, however.

Hulbert's advisers are now net short which has been a good marker for lows.

II is still too Bullish, but we've got plenty of Bearishness to support a sharp rally. All we need is price to confirm.

Interesting ! Thank you. But aside from that there are host of bottom picking going on with very little fear. I support this fact from threads on this board and other boards. This is not to be construed negatively just what I am seeing. I said this couple of weeks ago on this board, it ain't going to be that easy to get the bottom picked.

Well, take a peek at the historic actual position poll numbers. Do you see how often this crew gets heavily long right at the lows?

Mark

Here's the poll numbers...



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



See all that volume in the last hour yesterday? That's what is being resolved here.

I guess I'm saying that there is no psychology.

The VIX right now could be fairly low because big smart money is selling puts--puts that they don't care will be exercised because they have tons of cash that they need to put to work anyway, and more is coming. It's not measuring confidence or fear.

The P/C ratios are helpful on that front. they show smart money buying and dumb money all Beared up. Rydex isn't, showing much excess, however.

Hulbert's advisers are now net short which has been a good marker for lows.

II is still too Bullish, but we've got plenty of Bearishness to support a sharp rally. All we need is price to confirm.

Interesting ! Thank you. But aside from that there are host of bottom picking going on with very little fear. I support this fact from threads on this board and other boards. This is not to be construed negatively just what I am seeing. I said this couple of weeks ago on this board, it ain't going to be that easy to get the bottom picked.

Well, take a peek at the historic actual position poll numbers. Do you see how often this crew gets heavily long right at the lows?

Mark

Mark, I follow posts only and get a feeling of what the "general" sentiment is. What people write translates for me into sentiment of what they are thinking. Call it a different sort of indicator that is hard to quantify but precise if you follow along.

Here's the poll numbers...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif


See all that volume in the last hour yesterday? That's what is being resolved here.

Yes, that's exactly what I'm talking about, save on the ES 5'.

To my eye, this looks Bullish, if it can get some volume on a rally.

Mark

I guess I'm saying that there is no psychology.

The VIX right now could be fairly low because big smart money is selling puts--puts that they don't care will be exercised because they have tons of cash that they need to put to work anyway, and more is coming. It's not measuring confidence or fear.

The P/C ratios are helpful on that front. they show smart money buying and dumb money all Beared up. Rydex isn't, showing much excess, however.

Hulbert's advisers are now net short which has been a good marker for lows.

II is still too Bullish, but we've got plenty of Bearishness to support a sharp rally. All we need is price to confirm.

Interesting ! Thank you. But aside from that there are host of bottom picking going on with very little fear. I support this fact from threads on this board and other boards. This is not to be construed negatively just what I am seeing. I said this couple of weeks ago on this board, it ain't going to be that easy to get the bottom picked.

Well, take a peek at the historic actual position poll numbers. Do you see how often this crew gets heavily long right at the lows?

Mark

Mark, I follow posts only and get a feeling of what the "general" sentiment is. What people write translates for me into sentiment of what they are thinking. Call it a different sort of indicator that is hard to quantify but precise if you follow along.

I think you can get yourself into trouble doing that. I'm not saying that emotional responses are telling, of course.

We know that the site gets pretty edgy at turns. But noting bottom picking among some here as a bearish sign could get you hurt. There are some pretty good traders here and they call tops and bottoms with some regularity.

Mark

looks bullish til we look at this:



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



Increasing volume to downside in local zone.