Peter Thiel CNBC interview this afternoon

2 - 3 years Interview

Edited by johngeorge, 14 January 2008 - 04:51 PM.

2 - 3 years Interview

This guy, from what I know and follow, was spot on on everything including the timeframes. This is not going to be a quick correction. He's spot on about the investment bank models being broken. They got away from investing and got into ponzi schemes. They were able to wiggle out of the dot-com bust with the real estate boom but, this bust is a whole bunch bigger and certain not, by it's nature, containable.

The only thing he should have said was that some tech stocks are not going to be good places to go long as they will be feeling some of the collateral damage of corporations tightening their belts like chip makers.

Interesting comments througout. He may turn out to be right about a lot. Most telling was his comment about the FED choosing to bailout Wall street, and letting things like oil get out of control. (paraphrased) The markets still don't understand the full impact of the ridiculous levels of leverage many of these banks have had. Once they finally do, the carnage will finally begin in earnest. Nothing can save these folks. Just like nothing could stop them from doing this in the first place. It's too bad how it will take so many others down with it. I don't think anyone or any asset class is immune. Good lick everyone over the next few years, with your trading and investing. Traders may be the only ones who do ok here. Very little may be worth holding for long.

Edited by nimblebear, 14 January 2008 - 11:52 PM.

Interesting comments througout. He may turn out to be right about a lot.

Most telling was his comment about the FED choosing to bailout Wall street, and letting things like oil get out of control. (paraphrased)

The markets still don't understand the full impact of the ridiculous levels of leverage many of these banks have had.

Once they finally do, the carnage will finally begin in earnest.

Nothing can save these folks. Just like nothing could stop them from doing this in the first place.

It's too bad how it will take so many others down with it. I don't think anyone or any asset class is immune.

Good lick everyone over the next few years, with your trading and investing. Traders may be the only ones who do ok here. Very little may be worth holding for long.

Neither does the mainstream business media. They seem to be regurgitating what the banks and goverment officials are telling them. My jaw drops when I read that some survey of economists have now put the possibility of a recession in 2008 at 50%. We are in one already and have been since November in my opinion. It reminds me of what Ronald Reagan once said, "Economists see something happening and their reaction is to wonder if it would work in theory."

Between the peak of the subprime resets starting from now into the end of March, the impending lawsuits the ibanks and lenders are going to get in the form of class actions as well as municipalities, states and possibily the federal government suing for the devastation the foreclosures have done to many areas, especially urban, entities all over the planet suing for misrepresentation of their "bullet proof" AAA commercial paper products, mostly the CDO's that was sold to them, I have to wonder how ugly this is going to get. The ibanks and lenders can't afford all the litigaton and they can't afford to settle. Add to that rising oil prices and it's all going to reak havoc on the general economy.

This will be, as I mentioned earlier on another thread, a dream for the traders (it already is) and a nightmare for the investors.

Edited by milbank, 15 January 2008 - 12:07 AM.