DUG ... cleared for take off.

Should be a couple big days here. I'm loaded.

Bloodbath in Solars will probably continue too as energy sector falls apart.

Edited by ogm, 15 January 2008 - 10:29 AM.

Nice trade ! Bush for once is helping in this aspect by telling the OPEC to raise supplies. I will join you, waiting for settlement.

Should be a couple big days here. I'm loaded.

Bloodbath in Solars will probably continue too as energy sector falls apart.

This plane is going to hit the mountain...Might hold supports spx 1370ish the first time today but i think we're really going to crack to $indu 12100. This site is very slo and will not be able to post till latter. If we close weak I'm going to protect with puts and might sell some of my long stock...Good luck to all


I need the SPX to close above 1400 to get bullish again....otherwise the line of least resistance is lower.

Energy is a great short. I agree. I think it is going to underperform the market going forward regardless of the overall direction of the market. I think long SPY short XLE is a great market neutral trade. Denleo

Energy is a great short. I agree. I think it is going to underperform the market going forward regardless of the overall direction of the market. I think long SPY short XLE is a great market neutral trade.

Denleo

Here is the problem as I see it...

Energy is a great short. Retailers and Financials aren't going anywhere. Every rally there will be sold. Consumer discretionary, Even consumer staples. Anything consumer related isn't going anywhere.

Industrials are toast. Materials, also look sick.

Utilities... bleh.. unexciting.

Techs... tradable but iffy.

Healthcare/Biotechs... is the only sector left to play long.

So how would SPX go up, if there is really only one sector left to play ? And that sector is ultimately defensive too.


I think first of all we need to have a good washout, and then we'll probably base a little, then we'll see what's turning around. So far, I just don't see anything. But if prices get really cheap that would help the long side.

Edited by ogm, 15 January 2008 - 11:27 AM.

http://finance.yahoo...=...p;q=l&c=SPY

Energy is a great short. I agree. I think it is going to underperform the market going forward regardless of the overall direction of the market. I think long SPY short XLE is a great market neutral trade.

Denleo

Here is the problem as I see it...

Energy is a great short. Retailers and Financials aren't going anywhere. Every rally there will be sold. Consumer discretionary, Even consumer staples. Anything consumer related isn't going anywhere.

Industrials are toast. Materials, also look sick.

Utilities... bleh.. unexciting.

Techs... tradable but iffy.

Healthcare/Biotechs... is the only sector left to play long.

So how would SPX go up, if there is really only one sector left to play ? And that sector is ultimately defensive too.


I think first of all we need to have a good washout, and then we'll probably base a little, then we'll see what's turning around. So far, I just don't see anything. But if prices get really cheap that would help the long side.

OGM,

I wasn't talking about the market. I was talking about XLE underperforming the market. In a market neutral trade, the expectation is for both long and short to go in the same direction (it is a rare when your long goes up and short goes down) because it is done through correlation and relative strength analysis.

As far as the overall market is concerned. All I know is that it is getting cheaper. Good.

Denleo

There is a wall street legend that one of the Titans of the twenties was getting his shoe's shined and was asked for a stock tip. This Titan assumed that if the shoe shine boys were "playing" the "top" was in. Apparently he sold everything prior to the crash. What does it mean now that the bankers are being fired and becoming shoe shine boys? mm

Dennis........you adding to longs on this elevator ride? Or waitin for even lower prices or both? tks

Edited by Woody, 15 January 2008 - 02:04 PM.

Woody, I am waiting for a couple of indicators to confirm that it is safe to buy. I have done nothing so far today. I will either buy lower or after a reversal and confirmation (if it occurs). Keep an eye on volatility indexes. For example, NASDAQ is down 2% and VXN is down too. Interesting. Denleo