So when does Shang 'em Hai get clobbered ?
Nothing major happens until we see them get whacked big. Then many markets will re-value big time IMHO. Many would argue others would go down before them. Maybe.
The world is more intertwined than ever, and the derivative leverage exposes EVERYBODY to losses. Recognition hasn't quite kicked in yet. Its this big black hole. Counter-party trades will get ripped apart. insurance for this stuff wil be worthless. The backers backing the backers won't have the capital. Nobody does. Not even Gawd. $550 trillion in notional value.
Down markets like this start triggering many dominoes. They are inter-connected from many points. Dominoes is actually a bad analogy, because its linear.
THIS (derivative exposure and leverage) AIN"T LINEAR as many well know ! Nobody can connect the dots though. There are no regulations to watch this stuff. Its all off balance sheet. Its formulas.
I think thats why gold may even be taken out. and hit hard. No place to hide in this world of derivative crapola....
OTIS.