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Ok, this is starting to look bottomy.


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#1 ogm

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 12:08 PM

We never got the panic :( Scaled down shorts, loaded some longs. I think commodities will come down, and beaten down sectors like Retailers and Financials will drift up a little. Short commodities mostly. DUG, XLB, GOLD, etc. Covered more then half solars here, though they have more to go, IMO. Waiting to short semis into any rally. Fed will cut after all, so financials may be due for some kind of a bounce here. Look pretty washed out. But the best long sector is healthcare, IMO... JNJ, SCRX, MLNM look good.

Edited by ogm, 16 January 2008 - 12:13 PM.


#2 denleo

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 12:41 PM

I agree. That is what I said yesterday about a neutral trade: Long SPX short XLE. It is doing great today and I think it is going to do well for a while. Denleo

#3 Drano

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 12:46 PM

OG, Den, thanks for pointing out the XLE/OIH trade. Worked out nicely. :D

#4 SemiBizz

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 01:03 PM

Rate cuts do not solve the market's problem. The problem is national security. This is a creditworthiness issue at the moment. All you need to know here is that today is going to be one of the highest volume days in history. High Volume always gets tested... like 8/16 for example. I believe that test will come on 1/22 on lighter volume after the holiday and we'll be good to go then. The bottom this morning is only good for a short term trade, meaning hours not days.
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#5 pdx5

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 01:19 PM

If rate cuts could solve economic anemia, we should never ever had a recession or a depression. Rates on LT bonds were close to 2% in the 1930's and it did not help. It took a World War to revive the economy. My observations are telling me the market has fallen on to a ledge, not the valley bottom. There is much further to fall before we reach the valley bottom.

Edited by pdx5, 16 January 2008 - 01:20 PM.

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#6 ogm

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 01:24 PM

Rate cuts do not solve the market's problem. The problem is national security. This is a creditworthiness issue at the moment. All you need to know here is that today is going to be one of the highest volume days in history. High Volume always gets tested... like 8/16 for example. I believe that test will come on 1/22 on lighter volume after the holiday and we'll be good to go then. The bottom this morning is only good for a short term trade, meaning hours not days.



I'm not saying any of the problems will be solved. I'm just saying... ST washed out will "DRIFT UP A LITTLE" :)

#7 SemiBizz

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 01:26 PM

Risk is being repriced alright... :lol: Hug those high P/E bargains... see where that gets you as the economy shrinks... :lol:
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#8 dougie

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Posted 16 January 2008 - 03:37 PM

great calls ogm