Summation indexes

Summation indexes have turned down. That was the last strong bullish argument. Now it is gone. Tomorrow should have a bearish close outside of the triangle. Some sort of a panic next week. Then we (me and the bears) will take profits. Profits should be sizable. Then we will see if market bottoms. Denleo

the bullish "divergence" case has been the bottoms above bottoms structure for NYMO which remains the case. NYSI value tonight is -67.17....last night was -57.27...yes, a turn down day vs. day...do you think one day counts as a trend reversal for the NYSI uptrend in play for something like 13 consecutive days until it has gone relatively flat for the most recent 5 days counting today? Some would call this a continued indecision pattern that is showing a new leaning to the downside after today's action...let's be fair about what we are calling it after this one day.

Edited by hiker, 21 February 2008 - 08:12 PM.

NYMO and NYSI visible here, and cumulative NYAD and NYUD charts - [attachment=6485:SPX_with...dicators.png] [attachment=6486:nyad_daily.png] [attachment=6487:NYUD_cum.png]

We are in a contracting triangle. I personally would like to see the first move out of this indecision "fail" and the price then reverse in the opposite direction. I suspect then the move would be strong and irrefutable with many trapped going with the first breakout, and then setting a stop above or below the first failure point would be so, well, easy!

Edited by norton, 21 February 2008 - 09:54 PM.

Hiker-Nice charts. It's kinda hard to feel too bullish looking at the NYAD cumulative. Last rally it gets turned back right at the 200, then breaks through the 19 and 39 on the way down. Followed by a smaller pop, that again falls back through the 19 and 39.

Summation indexes have turned down. That was the last strong bullish argument. Now it is gone.

Tomorrow should have a bearish close outside of the triangle.

Some sort of a panic next week.

Then we (me and the bears) will take profits. Profits should be sizable.

Then we will see if market bottoms.


Denleo

I agree that the Summation index has turned down. Further, we have 2 lower highs and 2 lower lows on the McClellan Oscillator, all while the market has been attempting to rally. To me all this creates a pattern of weakness, which is ready to thrust out the bottom of the triangle.

IT

Norton:

We are in a contracting triangle. I personally would like to see the first move out of this indecision "fail" and the price then reverse in the opposite direction. I suspect then the move would be strong and irrefutable with many trapped going with the first breakout, and then setting a stop above or below the first failure point would be so, well, easy!

I've been thinking the same as Norton.
The triange is so obvious.
It's been the talk on CNBC today.
I just think it would be easy for big money to do a tactical move to fool the most before the "real" move.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 21 February 2008 - 11:08 PM.

Norton:

We are in a contracting triangle. I personally would like to see the first move out of this indecision "fail" and the price then reverse in the opposite direction. I suspect then the move would be strong and irrefutable with many trapped going with the first breakout, and then setting a stop above or below the first failure point would be so, well, easy!

I've been thinking the same as Norton.
The triange is so obvious.
It's been the talk on CNBC today.
I just think it would be easy for big money to do a tactical move to fool the most before the "real" move.

I think they already did. they had it out the top of the triangle on gaps on two different days the way I have it drawn. They couldn't keep it going. Now we've closed out the bottom (again, the way I have it drawn.

IT

Could be. Seemed like that's what Wednesday-Thursday action was. Tonight's s/t sentiment was unmoved and neutral after twin reversals. If it would have gone bearish, I would have been more bullish for tomorrow.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 21 February 2008 - 11:26 PM.

Summation indexes have turned down. That was the last strong bullish argument. Now it is gone.

Tomorrow should have a bearish close outside of the triangle.

Some sort of a panic next week.

Then we (me and the bears) will take profits. Profits should be sizable.

Then we will see if market bottoms.


Denleo

Volume summation didn't turn down.