15 of 16 weeks on a TSP Sentiment "BUY"

TSP
Bullish 15 of the last 16 weeks.

Meanwhile the SPX is down over 100 points.

I think this is why some people say sentiment is useless.
I may be wrong but we tend to be conditioned by the recent past.

"He can't be dead! He's always had a pulse."

But look at his EKG:
(Courtesy Spielchkr's Bottom Spotter)

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYAD&p=D&st=2000-08-16&i=p97952302375&a=114631410&r=9668.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 22 February 2008 - 12:08 AM.

Hey, Roger. I note that the TSP talk poll isn't up yet, but I wanted to offer my insights. Their sentiment "trading system" actually has very good results longer term. Enviable. The big problem, as I see it and as I have commented, is that it's "Bull market biased". Basically, it looks at sentiment the same way in a Bull market as a Bear market. Thus, the model flashes a buy on relatively modest levels of pessimism in a more powerful down trend, which is a prescription for a losing trade. And that's what they are seeing. Their excessive numbers are worth reacting to, however. If you're trading their system in this Bear market (assuming that this IS a Bear market), I'd NOT go long on their buys unless there's more than say 48% Bears and a Bull/Bear ratio of say <0.80. Just stay in cash. Even then, I'd require some sentiment and short-term trend support. I'd go back to their original system once the 50-week EMA turned up. One can probably take shorts too on their Sells. Just be fairly quick to take profits--don't wait for the next week's signal. I'd also skip the shorts if there's a ton of pessimism elsewhere. That could be a good way to take a pretty steep hit. Mark I'm pretty sure a person could do pretty well with those modifications.