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non-random musings


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#1 VolPivots

VolPivots

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Posted 22 February 2008 - 10:22 PM

when I was more actively tracking 2.5 week lows, I found ~140 30min bars was a pretty good average. Chart below uses a 1 bar moving average projected 144 bars into the future, which gives you an approximate timeframe to look for the 2.5 week low. It also gives you a "fractal" roadmap, which sometimes is uncanny how accurate it can be. We nearly nailed the exact price/time 2.5 week low projection today..........

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On a longer-term daily SPY evenly spaced channel barchart, here's what the price action looked like at IT lows...the resistance still remains directly overhead:
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Here's the same chart using a line chart....does that look like a potential ascending wedge? If a major low is in the rear-view, we saw no closing lows below the rising channel line once the uptrend established itself each of the last 3 IT lows (where do you place your stops if you're a bull?)
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Finally, anyone trade VIX options? Looking at the Mar option chain and recent action around VIX 25, seems to me that da boyz have an interest keeping it south of 25....look at all that open interest above 25. But if we're on the verge of a major trending move, why the heck is there no interest in the 20 put strike...a dime/contract???
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#2 VolPivots

VolPivots

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Posted 23 February 2008 - 10:55 AM

Deja Vu.....was thinking the action reminded me of May2004.....searching old posts (I know I called a bottom around 5/14ish but couldn't find the post), I found one of my posts from that timeperiod (5/12) in which I talk about VXN and ask almost the same question about trading VIX back then :huh: :

"Was today 'the' low for a solid countertrend rally? Not the slightest clue, but more than likely very close using VXN as a cyclic guide. My guess is the current decline is more similar to the Jan-Feb selloff than the Mar selloff. If so we rally one last time in abc fashion to test the middle green TL (~ VXN 22-23) before this correction (or beginning of the end of the cyclical bull) really unfolds. Could rally for ~ a month for an early June high. Anyone trade the VIX futures/options yet? May be a good play starting now/soon."

WE RALLY!