One reason to be long

SPX:VIX
Long term this booger is headed down, short term it has turned up.
Can price tag the 20 Month EMA near 1400?
Can we hold till the Ides of March?
My BS guess is yes but I'm not trying any swing trades longer than 30 minutes.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&b=5&g=0&i=p09067224865&a=30672916&r=8162.png

I'm not keen on counts beyond the day that I'm trading at the moment ...but here's a guess.
If this pattern took place....and was looking for down after the target box was reached....I don't want to see a weekly close above 1415ish....as that might be a sign that the picture is somewhat more bovine. Like your 24 month ema Roger...I'm watching the 89ema on the weekly presently at 1410. Even though the C=A would be closer to 1450...1410/1420 will be a challange to overcome if we see that area at all. Anyone looking for an early March high....this would fit the bill.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=5&dy=21&i=p62234331804&a=79672211&r=6870.png

That same pattern on OEX works nicely with fib levels...664 OEX would give approx. 1430 SPX fwiw


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=60&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p05186069387&a=79663062&r=368.png

Larger degree harmonic pattern has a quad-ex destiny....we'll see if the market cooperates........
corrected note: "a 1.618 extension on E to F leg projects to the same general price area for VIX"
F(ful)F: SPX will be trading near the 2007 beginning pivot (1417) by quad-ex

Edited by marketneutral, 23 February 2008 - 09:11 AM.

MN...Quad X being March 21?...Also spring equinox ....I've got a turn on March 7th fwiw.

MN...Quad X being March 21?...Also spring equinox ....I've got a turn on March 7th fwiw.

yes....I also have a turn ~ 3/4, but it's for TLT, which as of late has been mostly inversely correlated to the stock indices....if this projected path plays out, bears will see their day in the sun again as Sell in May and go away arrives.....

It's dangerous to get locked into a view of what the market must do.
With that said, this is in the back of my mind for a sell off:

Happy St. Patrick's, Butt Ugly Easter?, "Beware the ides of March"

Wow. This sounds UGLY!
I wonder how this will merge with some cycle stuff?
Any comments?

From the New Market Analysis Area: LINK

Negative January Barometer Points to Further Declines
Don't Get Snared By the Bear Market Rally

By Jeffrey A. Hirsch
The Stock Trader's Almanac
http://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/

"...The week after Triple Witching has quite a propensity for market slaughters. In election year 2000, the bear market began in March 2000 for NASDAQ and the S&P. The Monday before Triple Witching is solid with the Dow up 15 of the last 20 years, which happens to be Saint Patrick's Day this year, though the market has performed better on the day before the patron saint's holiday. When Good Friday lands in March, as it does this year, the day before is much worse.

And the day after Easter is the worst post holiday trading day with the S&P down 10 of the last 14. Refer to the March Strategy Calendar on page 16 for more of the nitty gritty on March. It still pays to heed that infamous warning to Julius Caesar and "beware the ides of March" as most of the trouble in March has come after mid-month."

bears will see their day in the sun again as Sell in May and go away arrives...

2003 was very weak Jan thru March and put in a bottom in March and May was up.
2004 put in a recovery high the first week of March, bottomed in May and finished the month up.
2005 put in a top in March and a bottom in April. May finished up after early weakness.

Sometimes it seems like seasonality gets inverted.
It's been WAY OFF this year as point out in this link:

The Santa Claus Rally failed to materialize, the First Five Days were down and the December Low Indicator was triggered on the first trading day of 2008. In fact the first three weeks of the year were the ugliest
opening to a year in recent memory. Also, the Year's Best Three-Month Span, November to January was atrocious. The last three months rank in the ten worst periods across the board. However, this is only the
fourth time since 1901 that the Dow has been down in each of these three months in a row.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 February 2008 - 11:51 AM.