If they can cut through this,

Because overall, the bears next week look unfavored here to me, strictly from the technical outlook that has set itself up. Only one out of six of the following scenarios (the 0% chart) unequivocally favors the bears for the next 20 days, at least from a "standard-charting-tools" perspective. I don't see clear resumption of confirmative bear market action ahead on these particular charts unless the 1260 level can be taken out. Same holds true for 1460ish and bulls, this is true. We're rangebound in a 180-point flatland (23.6% to 76.4%), as can be seen in the relatively horizontal direction of the envelopes to come. The RSI also bears this out, IMHO. But there are now many opportunities to exploit some positive divergences above, and I take that as a short-term (in my time frames of thinking) factor in the bull's favor. The ultimate motives and outcomes for such + divergence exploitations are fodder for the imagination, and stuff for another topic.

Here's a live chart for the charts that follow. The indicators are "standard-issue" 20ma, RSI 14 and MACD 12,26,9. Notice that the closing price is but a frog-hair above the 50% line, rendering the 20ma slope virtually flat. A 20ma flatline occuring on a Friday close is a good time for reassessing all trend slopes, above and below.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=23&i=p97429479998&a=130218860&r=9934.png

Here are 20-day price projections from the envelope lines shown in the chart above. Price tracking the envelope lines (envelopes are labeled) renders straightened 20ma slopes. Par-trend "straight-slope analysis" helps me, in some sort of controlled and referenced fashion, to incrementalize future trend accelerations & decelerations, better envision the price movements consistent with the trend, the effect on trend of price jumping from one envelope increment to another, and reduce some guesswork of what the different scenario outcomes will produce on any indicator I choose. It can be set up for any simple moving average and any timeframe chart.



Don't forget that there is TONS of congestive support not very far below, as evidenced by this $OEX chart.



At this point however, I'm not about to call for a new bull market bottom, just some bear naptime. This is my own momo indicator that equally contributes and weighs individual momo's for each day of the past 200 days up to the signal day. More often than not, breaking below zero does bring lower prices, if not a full-blood bear market. We've gotten the lower prices... will we get the rest of the bear market?


But even this momo indicator was barely truncated from putting in a lower low (and negative divergence) by Friday's "miracle":


I do have a rough target in mind for this move up, but I'm not telling. For now, I'm not holding short positions to neutralize my 401k stuff. As for putting in the rest to work for the bulls, we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Great work. A study of this type should be put on the Swing Waves board and linked so that time does not make it slide away too soon. Very nice work, thanks for sharing. mss

It'll be meaningless after 20 trading days from now anyway. But I'll stick it there for reference purposes.

Great work. A study of this type should be put on the Swing Waves board and linked so that time does not make it slide away too soon. Very nice work, thanks for sharing.
mss

I dont know too many looking for a full fledged bear mkt now, just a lower low with positive divergences in breadth and momentum. Like your OEX chart suggests. Mostly I like to see bullish divergence in new lows but there can be a very long time between those. The stocks are failing with bullish divergences, many through the Jan lows already. They get a pop but ultimately fail. The margin of heavy volume through last years lows and this triangle period should capitulate for a low. That's the key. If one buys AAPL at 125 but ultimately it needs 87, one may never recover. IBM didnt recover 1966 high until after 1994. I need the real low.

"...I need the real low."

The low rider is a little higher.
To be bullish, I too would also like to see bullish divergences with prices going DOWN, not UP. But I suspect that the divergences I've shown, if attained, will be enough to hook some into buying higher prices. My gut says this bear thing still ain't over by any means.