Plan

Here's what I'll do for you guys, canary in the coal mine. On the opening pop I'm long SDS calls, flat at some point, then QLD calls when I find a low turn. I'll pay up the QLD instead of playing with the bid. Sell QLD on Tues open pop. That SDS stick should get answered. Casparino will be backpeddling, qualifying, hedging because he knows what he did. I'll post SDS buy signal again during the week but will not be timely, at least by end of day.

I've been around for awhile and understand most things....but have to admit....you seem to communicate in some sort of code..... and I'm at a loss of what you have been saying in most of your posts over the weekend so far. I'm sure you are trying to offer something of value with this "canary in the coal mine" trade....but I don't understand what you are offering up and how people would see if the canary is dead or alive. I also don't understand what you said in a previous post re: options...."go out three months because there is enough overlap?" I presume that to mean you are best to go out 3 months if you were selling options....but not buying them? Sounds like you have a great deal of experience....and maybe it's some type of "floor slang" you are using....but just letting you know....it's hard to understand. Maybe it's just me.....if someone else understands..could you please interpret. TIA

Ok fair enough, I'll try to talk better.

The Monday trade plan is based on assumptions that a rumor induced countertrend panic will not
stand, it fact it alrady failed in technical context. The makings of disaster really.
Getting out in front of this is not statistically difficult at all, it's a trade
with the primary bias and is weighted by technical conditions.

While others are suggesting gap and go and all these scenerios, I'm taking a trade position with
a preponderance of technical weight, but may be emotionally difficult.
I may fail right in front of you. If one has ego problem, better get out of this game.

Like wrestler goes out front of the audience to loose on his own, that's a winner no matter
what happens.

Going three months out on options is suggested for put buying. There are bargains with reasonable time
value. Of course you pay for time decay but if a trade doesn't work out you'll be back in this area
within three months better than loosing money. I should have stated go well in the money too.
One trade that works is better than several small losses.

All my long call buying is Jan 2009, in time value bargains.

I posted the SDS buy signal very timely and accurate, I expect another during the week
and will post that day as soon as I can. If not it should be by early next week. These
SDS long buy signals are also emotionally difficult.

I've been around for awhile and understand most things....but have to admit....you seem to communicate in some sort of code..... and I'm at a loss of what you have been saying in most of your posts over the weekend so far.
I'm sure you are trying to offer something of value with this "canary in the coal mine" trade....but I don't understand what you are offering up and how people would see if the canary is dead or alive.
I also don't understand what you said in a previous post re: options...."go out three months because there is enough overlap?" I presume that to mean you are best to go out 3 months if you were selling options....but not buying them?
Sounds like you have a great deal of experience....and maybe it's some type of "floor slang" you are using....but just letting you know....it's hard to understand. Maybe it's just me.....if someone else understands..could you please interpret.
TIA

Bear says: "... rumor induced counter-trend panic."

Bull says: "... market response to an apparent resolution of a troubling problem."

Bloomberg

Again, this is the lesson I am conveying. You call be a bear, you haven't learned a thing. I give up. I am bearish, that doesnt mean I am a bear. It may mean I am right about reality conditions. That is the only thing that matters. I am deeply offended by permabias usage of my art.

It's always good to have a plan. That's the simple name of the game. Take a view, establish a position and manage it especially if it goes against you....otherwise let it ride, but don't get greedy and NEVER marry it. I've made several posts this weekend that are supportive of the bullish resolution to this triangle thingy with hints of areas where I'll have initial indications of where I will be wrong (i.e. what trendlines need to be broken for me to question my view?). So I've taken a view and one which I will execute accordingly early next week--taking a view is the easy part, executing and managing is the challenge. I calculate roughly a 4:1 reward-risk ratio based on where I think where heading and know where I will be stopped out if wrong. It's not a bet the farm type environment with all the volatility, but with confirmation I'll be adding on the way up and putting in trailing stops for downside protection. And I'm always VERY mindful of the ides of March 3/24/00 major high 3/21/01 very tradeable low 3/19/02 pre-crash high 3/12/03 major low (triangle resolved upwards into early March before 1 final leg down into THE bottom......keeping an eye on this) 3/5/04 IT high 3/7/05 IT high 3/8/06 minor low before continuation of the uptrend 3/14/07 very tradeable low

I guess it all depends on one's trading windows. If we meet at lunch and you can call the close, I'm good.

Bear says: "... rumor induced counter-trend panic."

Bull says: "... market response to an apparent resolution of a troubling problem."

Bloomberg

Non bull or bear, just trader says-I wish it was a response to an ACTUAL resolution, and not a "rumored, or apparent" one- the timing on that action smelled, period.

I exited my puts for a profit earlier in the day for a nice profit(leaving a fair bit on the table), and am long select tech stocks so the bump up helped me more than hurt me, BUT, I doubt the casino like action in the market is enticing mom and dads to make any long term comitments here. Sideline money deciding to come in that has so far refused to come in is the only way I see a true trending up market happening. A few more stunts like this, and that may be a LONG ways away. Also, if this rumor fails to yield any TRUTH in the next couple days-that pop will look tiny compared to the drop that follows, imho.

The problem is the news cycle is proving to be less and less effective at propping up the market. It goes back to BAC & CFC, the first hype job, that was pretty effective, they held it up until it finally hit single digits in November. With a few rumored assists along the way about all kinds of parties that were supposedly interested in buying it, like Warren Buttfart, Prince Tall-Weed, etc. Then was just recently, The old Buzzard from Omaha was going to bail out these bond insurer dudes, what happened there? It's just one rumor after another... and they get less and less effective each time. So sure, that rag on CNBC on Friday will be chewed over tonite in the pits and in Asia. As long as there are suckers out there that buy it, they will mark it up and sell it. But when the buyers go away, they are still going to be selling and the Markdown goes on and on.

Sounds like we did the itentical action, good trading.

Yeah, I'm thinking these stunts as you called it backfire, but that is based on technical conditions prevailing
and these actions just making the outcome worse. You know most people cant buy without it going up
and cant sell unless going down, they get hurt. It could backfire.

Bear says: "... rumor induced counter-trend panic."

Bull says: "... market response to an apparent resolution of a troubling problem."

Bloomberg

Non bull or bear, just trader says-I wish it was a response to an ACTUAL resolution, and not a "rumored, or apparent" one- the timing on that action smelled, period.

I exited my puts for a profit earlier in the day for a nice profit(leaving a fair bit on the table), and am long select tech stocks so the bump up helped me more than hurt me, BUT, I doubt the casino like action in the market is enticing mom and dads to make any long term comitments here. Sideline money deciding to come in that has so far refused to come in is the only way I see a true trending up market happening. A few more stunts like this, and that may be a LONG ways away. Also, if this rumor fails to yield any TRUTH in the next couple days-that pop will look tiny compared to the drop that follows, imho.