The Recession Is Under Way

There seems to me that there is a very high possibility of economic recession in US in front of us, and probably (I’m not sure) we’re living now that state. With slipping jobs data showed by the decline in January payrolls and the rising unemployment rate, a weak retail chain store sales reports with a surprising falloff in the ISM nonmanufacturing index, there is no doubt that the Recession is under way. Plus, on Thursday the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported regional manufacturing fell more than expected. Investors were also disappointed with another drop in the Conference Board's monthly index of leading economic indicators. No matter what people are saying, FED chairman was clear, the economic conditions are deteriorating significantly too fast. I’m not an expert in economic fundamentals indicators, but for a guy like me, that normally spends too much time reading economic books, there is no reason to not believe in this scenario, however I have just a simple question. Will be a deep or just a soft recession? I’m pointing to the second one, but I’m really extremely cautious right now. Things are not good, neither indications give me a fresh air to put this worry out off my mind, so as I said before play on the defensive side. It will be very depressing for all of us see the biggest world economy entering again in recession, even being just for some time. Risks to the downside are very high.