Edited by Cirrus, 19 March 2008 - 11:15 AM.
Worth Paying Attention To
Started by
Cirrus
, Mar 19 2008 11:10 AM
6 replies to this topic
#1
Cirrus
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Posted 19 March 2008 - 11:10 AM
Jason's "Smart Money / Dumb Money" confidence indicator over on Sentimentrader is at record lows---very (IT not necessarily VST) bullish. He's had the indicator since 2001. It's a combination of a multitude of indactors he uses and the thing is incredibly reliable at calling very tradeable IT bottoms. It's typically maybe a week or two early but it's been a great indicator for position traders.
I would also add that readings this high are not necessarily VLT bullish.
#2
gti_99
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Posted 19 March 2008 - 11:19 AM
Hi, can you please clarify? I suppose the indicator can be plotted or calculated whichever way. Do you mean the Smart / Dump is at record "low"? Thanks.
#3
dasein
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Posted 19 March 2008 - 11:19 AM
[isee options to open indices at 35, all securities 67.
not the close yet, but its been low the last two days. ST they are often right, OTOH, very low readings do often coincide with bottoms.
OK someone will say this is useless, i just think its a data point to keep track of.
klh
best,
klh
klh
#4
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 19 March 2008 - 11:50 AM
Karen, I think that familiarity with some of these indicators is key.
For me, I don't look at many of those options indicators or COT, so they aren't really useful to me, similarly, I DO look at the WSS Sentiment Surveys and I get a lot more out of them than other folks do.
Mark
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#5
Cirrus
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Posted 19 March 2008 - 03:15 PM
It's a pay site so I can't link the chart. It's an outstanding indicator as it's a combination of many indicators through a mathematical process. It' hasn't missed an IT bottom once since 2001 if you use it correctly.
#7
jmicou
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Posted 19 March 2008 - 10:37 PM
Jason's "Smart Money / Dumb Money" confidence indicator over on Sentimentrader is at record lows---very (IT not necessarily VST) bullish. He's had the indicator since 2001. It's a combination of a multitude of indactors he uses and the thing is incredibly reliable at calling very tradeable IT bottoms. It's typically maybe a week or two early but it's been a great indicator for position traders.
I would also add that readings this high are not necessarily VLT bullish.
FWI: Went back through all of the Sentimentrader data on the site to make a spreadsheet of the indicator that went back to 1/3/1995. On 3/14/08, it hit the -62%+ level. Only three other times since 1995 did it exceed 60%: 8/28/98 67%+; 8/31/98 67%+; and 7/22/2002, 63%+. In August 98 and in July 2002, both times the next two trading days were lower marking a bottom. Both times the rally peaked after about three to four weeks before declining into the October lows.
