Here's the big question !!!

Can both the stocks and commodities start falling here ? It that happens, then that would be very deflationary. Thoughts ??

It's all about the Strong Peso Policy isn't it ?

GLD Plummets in afterhours...Gold stocks going down with it... HOLY COW... looks like a gap fill coming 89.06 GLD

David Bensimon made the prediction in January that oil falling would give fuel (pun intended) to the stock markets.

you should read my posts ,he might have

This has been and remains...how I think this will play out. Recession. Deflation.

For the ST, ironically (or perhaps logically), my momentum signals are saying "rally'. D

The other shoe? I suspect so. I'm not trading gold -- just noting what could be the logical progression of this recessionary spiral. Good trading, D

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XAU&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p56291902733&a=127735960&r=8152.png

Can both the stocks and commodities start falling here ?

It that happens, then that would be very deflationary.

Thoughts ??

NAV, I don't have any thoughts on deflation but I do think it is possible for stocks and commodities to fall simultaneously. Nevertheless, do you have time for a few questions about your blog? If so here they are.

1. I notice you're using volume data instead of breadth data for your MCO. Is that intentional?

2. You show a recent PosDiv but your MCO is based on vol data which is at the close not intraday. So why do you use an intraday tail on price to derive a divergence?

3. There have been PD in the past like from november to january, do you agree with that?

I can tell you're good at what you do but I have no clue yet what you do.

Sincerely interested and grateful for any reply,

J

NAV: Bob Prechter will be on Bloomberg today discussing commodities and their role in deflation...etc MDW

Can both the stocks and commodities start falling here ?

It that happens, then that would be very deflationary.

Thoughts ??

NAV, I don't have any thoughts on deflation but I do think it is possible for stocks and commodities to fall simultaneously. Nevertheless, do you have time for a few questions about your blog? If so here they are.

1. I notice you're using volume data instead of breadth data for your MCO. Is that intentional?

2. You show a recent PosDiv but your MCO is based on vol data which is at the close not intraday. So why do you use an intraday tail on price to derive a divergence?

3. There have been PD in the past like from november to january, do you agree with that?

I can tell you're good at what you do but I have no clue yet what you do.

Sincerely interested and grateful for any reply,

J

1. I use both Vol and Breadth MCOs. I just showed one of them on my blog.

2. No the divergence is based on the close. I dont' use any intraday stuff for MCOs

3. Yes. MCOs are ST beasts. So MCO PD only guarantees ST rallies


To me MCO only shows the health and direction of the market. Not exact turning points in price. For that i use simple momentum indicators like CCI, MACD etc. I know the trend is down. I use the MCO to confirm that the internals still promise downside. I wait for a rally and short it either at resistance or using my momo gauges to time the turn. It's very simple.

IF you want to learn more about the MCOs, you should visit Fib's site (technicalwatch.com) or subscribe to the Mclellans publications. Fib_1618 is the master in that area.

Edited by NAV, 19 March 2008 - 09:01 PM.

[/quote] 1. I use both Vol and Breadth MCOs. I just showed one of them on my blog. [/quote] OK thanks. [/quote] 2. No the divergence is based on the close. I dont' use any intraday stuff for MCOs [/quote] Why the pink line drawn on price from close to intraday? [/quote] 3. Yes. MCOs are ST beasts. So MCO PD only guarantees ST rallies [/quote] OK thanks. I try to follow the chat on Fibs site but the main question I had pertains to that pink line you have drawn on the prices. If you drew that from close to close instead of from close to intraday, you would not have a PD would you agree? J