3-month tbills

something is seriously VERY wrong with 3-mo t-bills currently at 0.65%.......

something is seriously VERY wrong with 3-mo t-bills currently at 0.65%.......

Flight to safety. I expect that interest rates will move higher over the next few months.

something is seriously VERY wrong with 3-mo t-bills currently at 0.65%.......

I noticed this as well. Historically, it tends to indicate an extreme preference for return OF ones money rather than return ON ones money, and consistently marks IT bottoms when the panic subsides.

The real question here is... Is this time different? Is the panic justified? Are those who are in the know and realize where the next shoe will drop, simply protecting themselves...

Would you buy flood insurance if you knew a flood was coming?

The speed of decent in the IRX yield is higher than at any time since 1980.

I think we are starting a strong bear market rally and I am long SPX (when I voted in the actual position poll I was the only vote "fully long")
My stops and entries are below 1270

I agree with you that the speed of descent in the IRX indicates panic, but I believe the panic is among institutional investors. Secondly, considering the degree of panic as reflected in collapsing yields, the stock market correction has been relatively mild (just about 20% peak to trough). Either the Fed hand other forces (SWF, short interest,etc) have served to dampen the amplitude of the correction or the correction is not done and the full amplitude is due. I am looking for a day when the stock market dominates the news coverage at the mjor non-financial sources. I want CNN, FOX and MSNBC to be running saturation coverage of the economy and the markets the way they did with the presidential primaries, the war in Iraq (Before the surge improved things there), any random crime/missing person, any campus shooting, etc. That would truly mark the bottom and would be fitting considering the magnitude of the problems and the nature of the panic. I thought Bear Stearns' demise would be such an event but alas, it was not to be. CNN, FOX and MSNBC devoted more time to Pastor Wright and other stories than the collapse of one of five PRIMARY DEALERS.

The speed of decent in the IRX yield is higher than at any time since 1980.

That's the issue......panic that has yet to be reflected in the stock indices, IMHO. Technical conditions do seem right for a rally, but a sustainable one, a quick panic might be all that's required. VIX 40-50 would be ideal......

The speed of decent in the IRX yield is higher than at any time since 1980.

That's the issue......panic that has yet to be reflected in the stock indices, IMHO. Technical conditions do seem right for a rally, but a sustainable one, a quick panic might be all that's required. VIX 40-50 would be ideal......

I agree that we will see both a VIX of 40+ and more broad coverage from the media before all is said and done with the bear market (we will also probably see records from sentiment and breadth measures we have never seen before). The question is does this necessarily have to happen now? Can we have a bear rally to allow even more distribution? Is it really smart money buying all of those MER and LEH puts or is dumb money enmass contributing to those astronomical volumes on OTM puts? (given all of the media hype that LEH is sure to be next) I do not know, and I will stop out somewhere around 1255 if I am wrong for a small loss. I am well aware that the problems we are dealing with are VERY real.

The more leveraged trades that I will be taking for the forseable future will be on the short side but I am giving the bulls a chance in here.

Good Trading,