I may be wrong but fwiw, I give you my projection

A bear market rally is fierce. Its awe inspiring, and it will literally rip your head off if you are short. If you're too young to have traded the volatile days in 2001-2002, where leverage basically meant you were dead in 1-2 days, then you don't know what I'm talking about. Volatility doesn't mean it just goes down fast. There's a bunch of young traders here who didn't experience first hand the rally coming out of 9/11. The world was about to end, we were gonna get massacred by airplane bombs. About 20% rally later, everyone was ready to party like 1999 again. Do you remember those days? Most talk like they don't. Did it matter that there was enron and gigantic nasquack bubble, or a recession with droves of dotbomb drones roaming about? No. All that mattered was that there was a very lobsided short position in an asset that's designed to continually inflate. I feel like one of those days are here. I'm warning you because that was my true first bear market, even tho I've done enough studies of bear markets before. Price = emotion. Use emotion to trade, not trade on emotion. I may be wrong, but it sure feels right.

Thanks for that. Interesting to hear some perspective... People have shown historical charts, but you're the first I've seen to describe the actual experience.

to quote yourself, don't get too emotional with all these messages warning the shorts the market will let folks know who is on the correct side and who isn't (does it every second)

read elsewhere that current volatility in the S&P is the highest since 1938, not just 2000, measured by the number of days with >1% moves, this number has increased from unusually high numbers already at the beginning of the credit crisis in Aug to more than 50% recently. DC can you tell us how it felt in 38?

Edited by dasein, 20 March 2008 - 07:27 AM.

A bear market rally is fierce.

Its awe inspiring, and it will literally rip your head off if you are short.

If you're too young to have traded the volatile days in 2001-2002, where leverage basically meant you were dead in 1-2 days, then you don't know what I'm talking about.

Volatility doesn't mean it just goes down fast.

There's a bunch of young traders here who didn't experience first hand the rally coming out of 9/11. The world was about to end, we were gonna get massacred by airplane bombs. About 20% rally later, everyone was ready to party like 1999 again.

Do you remember those days? Most talk like they don't. Did it matter that there was enron and gigantic nasquack bubble, or a recession with droves of dotbomb drones roaming about? No. All that mattered was that there was a very lobsided short position in an asset that's designed to continually inflate.

I feel like one of those days are here. I'm warning you because that was my true first bear market, even tho I've done enough studies of bear markets before. Price = emotion. Use emotion to trade, not trade on emotion.

I may be wrong, but it sure feels right.

what makes u so sure its a bear market?

It could be a wave 4 correction, with 5 to come?

Not sure if you are saying we go up or down. great work by the way. i love your posts.