Market Timing, Time Frames and arrogance

Sunday night at 1253.5 June I covered my shorts I took at 1295 post .25 cut. For me Sunday night that was THE BOTTOM. On the retest at 1258 I shorted SDS (SSO is much thinner and fills suck) as I was too scared to buy futures. I covered at the gap fill at 1334.75 which was THE TOP....for me. I remained flat till I saw 1286 hold overnight which I felt was the BOTTOM. This time I bought futures after the daily pivot was breeched. As my oversold indicators a manipulation of tick and trin and put to call (which work always work because this time is NOT DIFFERENT in the time frame I trade) I also bought GS calls and Visa as they were clearly strong. The calls increased 65% for the Aprils adn I made 4 bucks in Visa off THE BOTTOM. I sold out and went flat At the TOP. It was a good week for me, buying BOTTOMS and selling TOPS as best I can with good risk mangement and lots of practice. I am writing this because I find it silly that many dont post, myself included as the severe and arrogant attacks on people who do post their views are pounced upon by those who absolutely know what is going on, and feel they must defend their views. Over the weeks, I have noticed many of the most accurate and stable posters become increasingly assertive and arrogant. Over time, I have noticed in traders I have worked with how the intensity of the swings transfer to to the intensity of ones convictions and views. That solidification of one's view then often leads to the revenge of humility upon these traders. Many fight the obvious and lose a large chunk or simply blow up in a major trend change. For example, I saw one poster continually hound AHA for information regarding his DD and margin and risk management on his recent trades. His projection was that AHA must be trading ES on margin and his stop loss insane and undisciplined. NOT thinking that some people for tax purposes trade ES NOT on margin and a 5% DD is NOT an issue when your risk to reward as measured in Aha's analysis was such that to him it makes sense. So many inexperienced people jump to conclusions, defend their views with aggression, and dont understand that ones time frame of trade is the issue. Semi an analyst I respect a great deal in both his generosity and clarity and until recently his steady demeanor, tonight said "this is so easy." Semi, there is not a professional trader in this world, no matter what their experience or long term track record who think this market is easy. You are the only one I guess. I know and work with many and not one of them despite their success and hyper wealth call this market easy to trade. There are very clear and time tested technical analysis approaches that argue that a bottom was put in at 1253 basis the daily weekly chart. That is a valid view from so many perspectives. As well, there very clear and time tested approaches which argue for a breech of 1253, and that we are for the second time in a decade going to face a severe bear market. ( Yes even this can be argued from a monthly quarteely time frame that this past long bull was only a wave up in a bigger bear). What interests me here are the folks who instead of chastizing posters with opposing views, tell us how they plan on trading their view and especially, the time frame they trade. I have appreciated a great deal Semi's efforts as well as Aha's. Thank you both and the others offerring the same. Sadly, I benefit most from the frequency of opportunity that short term trading affords me, making posting my style impossible. On a swing basis or daily basis trade, seems to me that put buying and short sales in this current environment has substatial risk until we see if the follow through yesterday expands. Substantial accumulation occurred in individual equities ( volume distortions are large due to massive businees being done in dark piplines.) Though the short sale rule hosed alot of the valuable tick info, as has the increased us of dark mkts, I see instituional accumulation occurring. I wont get interested leaning short till 1250 goes or we are much higher. The shorts are too arrogant as I measure them.

Crestdor, Well done! I have never read a message board regarding stocks or anything else where tensions did not get hot and people pound the keyboard. It is amazing how brave some people are behind the keyboard. It is an internet issue at heart. It is very difficult to communicate "tone" on these message boards. Also messages are also easy to misinterpret. Valuable information is sometimes left out causing confusion for the reader....ex timeframe. And sometimes when the information is communicated well the reality of the reader is much different than the poster. IE one person has never traded a 5 min chart and can't fathom why someone would and is only interested in weekly charts or LT moves. So in summary I don't know that there will ever be the message board you and I imagine. But we can do better. Ask yourself why you are here? Why do you spend 2-3hrs most days hitting refresh and reading the posts? For me its to make money and learn. I feel like I can do both better by exchanging ideas with people here. There are many smart people here and they may see something I do not and vice versa. I am interested in seeing all cases both bulllish and bearish and I can make up my own mind. Feel free to debate and play devils advocate but be nice people...we have already scared off Teaparty and OMG has more or less stopped posting. Don't drive away the rest. There is more than one technique too! SL PS Crestdor I also thought the poster hounding A-HA was being a little too over insistent

Edited by StillLearnin, 21 March 2008 - 11:51 PM.

I think the VIOLENCE of this market lead to extremes in behavior. I think the reinstatement of the uptick rule would solve a lot of problems. Calm things down. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. But seriously, how many of ya'll are eating too much, drinking too much, sleeping too much (or too little), arguing with your spouse/SO more, etc. etc. since the market became so violent? Not surprising to see the tension reflected on a message board. I just don't like seeing individual posters persecuted or "stalked". That's crossing the line.

nothing new on this board guys. the behavior is typical at turning points. pissing matches. feelings get hurt. traders come and go. and the arrogant eventually get bitched slapped by ms. market and are humbled and some disappear for awhile . just relax and enjoy the show.... . ed rader

Exactly !!

I hope we can confirm the IT bottom next week so I can post more about the ongoing Bull market. Fighting the Bull is much more entertaining to read about here.

It's easy for me because I have a black and white set of rules I apply. I don't go about this business with grey in the picture. If you don't have a trading plan, you'll lose money, it's as simple as that, and then you have to rely on HOPE to bail you out. I have a trading plan, if the market makes an unexpected turn, I do not sit in a position and hope things will get better, I move out of the position and take another look at my plan to see what I need to modify.... I have an expected set of behaviors, and if you've read my posts it's a bit remarkable, even for me how well my strategies have worked. I'm not about to change them now, regardless of what anyone thinks. I don't give a darn what anyone thinks of me. I can quit posting here altogether any time if the success of my "simple" work threatens those who use grandiose analysis with inferior results.

I have generously shared some of my techniques here. I don't have to put up with any BS from other people trying to defend their views, methodologies, market outlooks or techniques. The proof is in the results.

I'm sorry if my "matter of fact" attitude offends someone, but I'm not about to change my attitude anytime soon. I suggest you put me on ignore if it does offend you. To me this business is easily defined and overly-complicated by excess analysis.

Seeya in a few weeks. I had enough here for awhile.

Edited by SemiBizz, 22 March 2008 - 02:48 PM.

SemiBizz there is no debating your generosity, nor your techniques or willingness to explain your knowledge freely. I for one have appreciated it. As well, the clarity of your plan is quite straight foward, as you say black and white. My question is what is the benefit to this site to putting down an other's analysis? How does that serve this site or people who come here to share? How does that attitude, not just yours, but many of the experts who cannot offer generously without also rippen someone else "naive" opinions. Clearly in any social venue but the cyber, would you exhibit that type of childish communication. I am sorry to rub you wrong, but your words here lately to many folks are just that, childish.

Crestdorf, you are over here talking your position which disagrees with mine. Save me the childish BS. I told you before I DO NOT GIVE A darn WHAT YOU THINK !! So bug off.

I have no position nor opinion currently except regarding your behaviour which is quite clear.