NDX, SPX, COT, RYDEX, BKX and SOCKS

Folks, notice the following changes this week.

1. Looks like the Rydex Cash Flow Ratio is making a break for 1.15 which may / could be a bottom?

NDX

2. Commercials are still bullish NQ.

3. Sox which some were saying was showing "relative strength" has weakened.

4. NDX chart looks like it could / may be setting up into a bearish wedge.

SPX

5. Commercials are slightly bearish on the SPX big contract and slightly bullish on the ES mini. Not sure what to make of that.

6. Bank Index looks like it is right at resistance.

7. Despite some positive action on SPX this week it is at some heavy resistance, chart still says trend is down until 1340 - 1350 is cleared convincingly.

Bottomline, BKX looks exhausted and SOX looks like it has one foot in the grave already so expect SPX to make a run at 1350 and the NDX to 1780 to try to break through resistance then may / could resolve to the downside as previous attempts.







http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SOX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p99033072886&a=133374223&r=3236.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p99033072886&a=133358118&r=23.png



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BKX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p71993582898&a=133374548&r=2691.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p45876905036&a=132688997&r=281.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p46475087370&a=133328695&r=5002.png

CAUTION: After further review, Open Interest on the COT report exploded this week. I think we need another week to figure out if they are getting short or long. I think the rule is rising price with rising OI and declining volume is bearish as what happened this week but someone please confirm that. NQ OI up 31% SPX OI up 20% ES OI up 24%

Edited by hedgehawk, 22 March 2008 - 09:16 PM.