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#1 arbman

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Posted 23 March 2008 - 10:17 PM

If the private sector can not manage to grow the GDP over the coming years, the Fed will try to inflate, if the Fed can not manage to restore the price stability, the gov't will find other ways to inflate. The debt to GDP is not as high as the historical norms, even though a great portion of the taxes are actually spent on the interest of the debt (not principal). There are more productive ways to inflate than what the Fed is trying to do, if there is no other way...

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http://ichart.financ...0,m200&a=v&.png

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http://ichart.financ...0,m200&a=v&.png

http://ichart.financ...0,m200&a=v&.png

http://ichart.financ...0,m200&a=v&.png

http://ichart.financ...0,m200&a=v&.png

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#2 dcengr

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Posted 23 March 2008 - 10:25 PM

I don't know why you're using funnymentals here... we only had a 30% chance of recession in july for this year, remember? And practically no one except a few of us here had any idea that we would have this sort of melt down. So whatever tools the economists are using needs to be taken out to the woodshed, because it doesn't seem to work forecasting the stock market. The best tool for the economy is your common sense. In 2000, the market was going nuts, and their was general stupidity. If you didn't see it, well you weren't going to see it. Same thing here with the housing crisis. Now ask yourself.. why are all the people who were bearish at the top bullish here?
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#3 arbman

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Posted 23 March 2008 - 10:40 PM

This is for a longer term speculation into the coming years. I just don't see any other asset class that will become as bubblish as the housing into the coming years to support the growth as much as the housing did during the 2002-2006 period.

I think there will be eventually more and more drastic measures. One more chart to add to the above list...

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=RTN&t=5y&q=c&l=off&z=m&p=m50,m200&a=v&.png


I invested in some of these (RTN, ATK, LMT) as a longer term speculation right after the 2000 crash, I was not surprised what news eventually came out. These companies benefit during the drastic measures in a deflation...

#4 dcengr

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Posted 23 March 2008 - 10:48 PM

Well over the long run, you know the boomer situation will need to be resolved. My guess is that boomers don't have jack saved up for retirement, not even stocks. They have it all in homes. But its worse than that. Everyone who's had their lives improved the last 20 years or so (russians, chinese, eastern europeans) don't want to go back to their backward life styles. And as the US invaded Iraq to protect our "living standards", so shall it be so with these countries. But take a look at 1937-1945.. or 1970 to 1985.. stock market didn't just go to zero. We are transitioning to a new world order.. if you recall the imperial/colonial days in the 1870+, where britain/germany/us etc were all running around looking to take over as much resources as possible.. well it fits with me. I don't really look at the economic data.. just watching the news gives me this sense for where I think we're headed. I have a feeling south america and africa will play a big roll in the future. Especially antartica, and australia, because of its proximity to antartica. The only frontier left on this planet will get raped in the coming years.. my fearless forecast.
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