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Tommorows close could change the whole IT market geometry

Started by TheArchitect , Mar 26 2008 05:03 PM

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14 replies to this topic

#1 TheArchitect

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 05:03 PM

SPY & DIA landed just above the broken downtrend line today... back kiss???... maybe... but if tomorrows close breaks down... the whole thing could be an engineered BULL TRAP... :huh:

... the QQQ's have about 1.7 points down to test this line... and if the dow and spx cant hold that line... u betcha the qqq's are headed down the same path... w/ alot further to drop (if thats the case) making the QQQ's the most risk adverse short right now...

http://stockcharts.c...4803&r=1205.png

http://stockcharts.c...4783&r=1093.png

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#2 selecto

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 05:22 PM

I can't stop chuckling about Semi's little comp "turd" of the 17th.

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#3 StillLearnin

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 05:26 PM

TA,

Drawn a little differently....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=10&i=p08695575610&a=134330402&r=7742.png

http://www.collectiv.../system73738932

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#4 StillLearnin

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 05:35 PM

TA, I am still inclined to think this is still a wave B pull back in an A-B-C correction up to 1415 but will let you know if I see something to change my mind. My B target for now is around 1311. The way I got that was working backwards 1360-1256 = 104 = A). (1415-104 = 1311 = Wave B]. Why 1415 ©? Its the 50% retrace of the decline so far which was where I think all of the bear rallies in 2000-2002 stopped.

Edited by StillLearnin, 26 March 2008 - 05:40 PM.

http://www.collectiv.../system73738932

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#5 TheArchitect

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 05:42 PM

TA,

Drawn a little differently....

yes... i think mine was drawn on the SPY's... which trade a bit off SPX cash (from a multiple)... but that's an even stronger case you've made for an excellent R/R short setup... and was confirmed with a reversal in the oscillators... still both should be confirmed by:

1.with your's a continued move down
2.with mine a break of the trendline

nice chart work

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#6 TheArchitect

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 05:44 PM

I can't stop chuckling about Semi's little comp "turd" of the 17th.

hysterical terminology... :lol:

... i wonder if it gets tested...

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#7 IYB

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 05:52 PM

SS Uptrend intact. I'll be buying on weakness tomorrow. D

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

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#8 TheArchitect

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 06:09 PM

SS Uptrend intact. I'll be buying on weakness tomorrow. D

i see... thats the mixed signal between price action vs. internals... so... IYB... would you still be buying weakness if we break the downtrend line from above... because that's where any weakness would take us...

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p59362036938&a=131270267&r=6259.png

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#9 SemiBizz

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 06:20 PM

I can't stop chuckling about Semi's little comp "turd" of the 17th.

It morphed from an "Island Bottom" to a turd when the low came on more volume... :bear:

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Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

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#10 IYB

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Posted 26 March 2008 - 06:21 PM

SS Uptrend intact. I'll be buying on weakness tomorrow. D

i see... thats the mixed signal between price action vs. internals... so... IYB... would you still be buying weakness if we break the downtrend line from above... because that's where any weakness would take us...

I will still buy weakness so long as SS's do not go to sell mode. If and when they do switch to sell mode....so do I. At this point, however, they have a whole lot of divergence work to do in order to get there- which is why I'm a currently a buyer on weakness.

Edited by IYB, 26 March 2008 - 06:27 PM.

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds