Closed Short Position for 20 Point SPX Gain

The 4 hour oscillator is predicting an early/mid day low Monday. Current projection has been changed to the 50% retracement area around 1309/10. We could have a gap up to the 1355 area tomorrow or +30, if so it would be a great short IMO. blu

The 4 hour oscillator is predicting an early/mid day low Monday. Current projection has been changed to the 50% retracement area around 1309/10. We could have a gap up to the 1355 area tomorrow or +30, if so it would be a great short IMO.

blu

why would short a gap up with the solid breadth we are seeing, chances are it will hold

on the other hand gap down would be a buy as it will not hold

nasdaq has too many gaps above, in order for the gap downs to hold

We could have a gap up to the 1355 area tomorrow or +30,.

blu

Dang Blu! What are you seeing that would give you that idea?

Thanks.

SL

SL Breadth is really strong either this is a big fake and we heading to new lows within two weeks or we that breadth comes to use and we have a move up of 2 per cent within the next 2-3 trading days above 1360 and i think the bottom is in what do you think SL

Edited by relax, 27 March 2008 - 04:38 PM.

Relax, I think we are in corrective wave up A-B-C and are in Wave B. My target for Wave B is currently 1307-1311. The first of those numbers is the 50% retrace of this recent big up move and the second number is where B would have to stop for wave A to equal Wave C at 1415. I am guessing the low would come in tomorrow or Monday and then up to 1415. 1415 is both the 50% retracement from Ocotber 07 highs and the high end of the highest volume candlestick for SPY on daily....kind of weird coincidence. But this market you just have to play day by day. There are no divergences in the lower time frames suggesting its ready to go higher yet but so far I think the decline has been too orderly to suggest it could be anything other than a B wave. SL

The 4 hour oscillator is predicting an early/mid day low Monday. Current projection has been changed to the 50% retracement area around 1309/10. We could have a gap up to the 1355 area tomorrow or +30, if so it would be a great short IMO.

blu

Blu: A little surprised at the change in thought as I thought you were looking for the 1280's either tomorrow or Monday. I had thought this was plausible as the translation of transiting Venus to the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition will end tomorrow Friday, March 28. When the Sun made this translation February 27-March 10, stock prices around the world fell hard, much like what happened in January. And it did. Personally, I am interested as what happens at ES 1316, if it holds then we reverse into the mid-1300's, otherwise we have a possibility of testing 1287 or 1261. Based on the action, I am expecting to go long on tomorrow's close as I suspect that Monday will be a big day on the upside due to quarterly window dressing. Good trading...MDW

blustar--good call so-far--But if you are going to bail a day or two early on your calls--you gotta repost to give a heads up--otherwise anybody trying to follow you --gets left at the dock--Thanks

The choppy action to the down side over the past few days has been hard to trade. I managed to take $3100 out of the market, but it has been difficult due to the counter trend 'b' wave VST trend down vs. the ST being up into next week. I have to play this market day by day. Right now, it looks like it will hold the 1305/06 area +/- 3 points. The 4 hour oscillator I study is suggesting a move down into Monday and then up into April 4th C=A both time and price probability. If we hold at the above levels then a move to above 1400 would be likely. The 1406 level comes to mind as strong resistance being the Nov 2007 low. Right now this B wave has an a-b-c "a" wave and now we are in "b" with wave .y coming I think to the upside, and it should take us above 1347 to as high as 1354. If I'm wrong, then I will wait until the B wave bottom has confirmed and go long. That is the way I am playing it. blu

The choppy action to the down side over the past few days has been hard to trade. I managed to take $3100 out of the market, but it has been difficult due to the counter trend 'b' wave VST trend down vs. the ST being up into next week. I have to play this market day by day. Right now, it looks like it will hold the 1305/06 area +/- 3 points.

The 4 hour oscillator I study is suggesting a move down into Monday and then up into April 4th C=A both time and price probability. If we hold at the above levels then a move to above 1400 would be likely. The 1406 level comes to mind as strong resistance being the Nov 2007 low.

Right now this B wave has an a-b-c "a" wave and now we are in "b" with wave .y coming I think to the upside, and it should take us above 1347 to as high as 1354.

If I'm wrong, then I will wait until the B wave bottom has confirmed and go long. That is the way I am playing it.

blu

Another area I'm looking at is the 1337/41 area for a short as we may be in a running correction. It could be we see a mid day high and then a sell-off into Monday to the 1302 area max and that would be based on the SPY, which has been lean lately for premium about 2-4 points actually to a negative premium to cash.