Super Cycle Top update

3-31-08 week, the bounce off the 1256 low died at the first quarter 1352 level and achieved the year 2008 projected low 1309 area Friday. This week we have a decent shot at an early weekly low at the 200 day lower Bollinger band currently at 1300 areas so be alert for a late Monday to mid day Tuesday turn around near 1300-1290 max. Notice the 200 day and 377 day lower bands and the moving averages are merging? Those two areas should now define support and resistance for the next two months of bounce back rally. Only a crash event can move the markets below the 377 day lower band. Notice only three days traded completely below the band, pops back above the band and is now testing the support. Best, Larry

Very cool information!! If only a crash can make us go through 377, I need a lot more shorts!!!!!!!!!!!

Larry, I'm using the same count. A fairly reliable sentiment indicator is on the verge of confirming or aborting this count, the TSP Sentiment numbers at www.TSPtalk.com/sentiment. This sentiment number like the AAII ones shift rapidly. I don't pay any attention to their ratio. I plot the raw bull and bear numbers. In the Bear phase which just ended (I think), the Bear number generally stays above the Bull number. This week the Bear at 43 and Bull at 46 are approaching each other. This coming week's Bull number should confirm the up trend by moving above the Bear number. If the opposite happens and the Bear starts pulling away again, more down side pain is in store. This is a coincident indicator, but useful never the less to confirm my idea of the trend. Happy Trading.

3-31-08 week, the bounce off the 1256 low died at the first quarter 1352 level and achieved the year 2008 projected low 1309 area Friday. This week we have a decent shot at an early weekly low at the 200 day lower Bollinger band currently at 1300 areas so be alert for a late Monday to mid day Tuesday turn around near 1300-1290 max. Notice the 200 day and 377 day lower bands and the moving averages are merging? Those two areas should now define support and resistance for the next two months of bounce back rally.

Only a crash event can move the markets below the 377 day lower band. Notice only three days traded completely below the band, pops back above the band and is now testing the support.

Best,
Larry

Can you show us the 377 day lower band, during the time frame 2001-2003?

"Only a crash event can move the markets below the 377 day lower band" So, what am I not understanding? Did we have 3 days of crash events already to get under the band before?

"Only a crash event can move the markets below the 377 day lower band"

So, what am I not understanding? Did we have 3 days of crash events already to get under the band before?

Spooky, a crash event is a fast continous drop of 20% in a few days and it must happen from a contracted sideways bands formation like we see at the 2000 high. What you see there is an aborted crash event. On the 2000 to 2002 low decilne we did not see one crash we saw three and each one popped right back above the band. This week for example by Wednesday the SnP would be lower than 1256, that would be a crash like event.

larry I thought you thought the lows were in for the IT timescale. Your count suggests 5 still to come and this would be below the wave 3 bottom recently seen. doenst make sense to me. cheers.

larry I thought you thought the lows were in for the IT timescale.

Your count suggests 5 still to come and this would be below the wave 3 bottom recently seen.

doenst make sense to me.

cheers.

I suspect 377 is not magical and will not stop a crash. That being said, I think the paulson announcement is terrific news and I would expect a huge rally around that Monday.

larry I thought you thought the lows were in for the IT timescale.

Your count suggests 5 still to come and this would be below the wave 3 bottom recently seen.

doenst make sense to me.

cheers.

You thought correct, the IT low is in at wave c, "c", "C" at 1256? What is it that confuses you? A large A, B, C wave completed at 1256 and a bounce wave up for a couple months is in progress.

I would add the mega super Bulls like Da Chief see this 1256 low as an irregular flat wave two from the 2002 low and the "watch the sky" third of the third of the third wave is next. I would also add this is the last chance for that super bullish pattern to play out, if this ain't it then it ain't never gonna happen and the Super Cycle top is in.

Best,
Larry

larry I thought you thought the lows were in for the IT timescale.

Your count suggests 5 still to come and this would be below the wave 3 bottom recently seen.

doenst make sense to me.

cheers.

I suspect 377 is not magical and will not stop a crash. That being said, I think the paulson announcement is terrific news and I would expect a huge rally around that Monday.

Musta missed something, what Paulson announcement?