Gold...

As much as I think it could head higher before a collapse, nothing ever follows exactly as predicted..

IF gold falls below this line...

Again, my original time line is for slight up til ECB lowers rates. But one never knows..

[quote name='dcengr' date='Mar 29 2008, 01:01 PM' post='362998']
As much as I think it could head higher before a collapse, nothing ever follows exactly as predicted..

IF gold falls below this line...

Again, my original time line is for slight up til ECB lowers rates. But one never knows..

Looks like an ABC correction where we are starting "C".

if you ask me, XAU already tipped its hand...


can't help but feel the same here:

The margin increase did a lot to flush out the baby longs. And so will the tax man, since gold is taxed at hobby rate. I still expect gold bugs to push this to da extremes. It will be the next big collapse. See, when I post 'gold will collapse' I get a half a dozen posters saying why it won't.. When I post 'gold will rise' I get some posters saying why it will.. Sentiment works just fine.

The margin increase did a lot to flush out the baby longs.

And so will the tax man, since gold is taxed at hobby rate.

I still expect gold bugs to push this to da extremes. It will be the next big collapse.

See, when I post 'gold will collapse' I get a half a dozen posters saying why it won't..

When I post 'gold will rise' I get some posters saying why it will..

Sentiment works just fine.

"Gold taxed at the hobby rate"????? Another piece of bad information about gold.

IT

"Gold taxed at the hobby rate"????? Another piece of bad information about gold.

IT

Maybe hobby is not strong enough a word for crazy old men who play with yellow metal in the darkness of their bed sheets in the middle of the night

Btw, didn't you buy some homes right before the collapse? How're those doing?

The New Gold Rush

“This is the second big California gold rush. We’ve had a lot of phone calls from people who are quitting their jobs and prospecting full-time.”

Edited by dcengr, 29 March 2008 - 04:30 PM.

"Gold taxed at the hobby rate"????? Another piece of bad information about gold.

IT

Maybe hobby is not strong enough a word for crazy old men who play with yellow metal in the darkness of their bed sheets in the middle of the night

Btw, didn't you buy some homes right before the collapse? How're those doing?

Let me explain something to you, in case you have missed it prior to this. I have owned rental houses and small apartments for most of my adult life. I own quite a bit of property right now, most of it free and clear. It creates significant income. I'd say it's definitely gone down in value since 2005, the year that it peaked here in my area. But, the income has not gone down. It has in fact gone up. My intent is to hold property, just as I have for decades.

Now, if you're asking me did I buy some houses right before the collapse? The answer is no. If you think I said that just point me in the direction of a post, and I'll be happy to respond to it. I have bought some homes since the peak though, perhaps you've confused it with that....certainly I would not be surprised if you're confused in some way.

But frankly, I doubt if you understand how the real estate market works. Most amateurs don't. So let me enlighten you to a small extent.

Real estate is not an efficient market. If a 3 bedroom house is for sale cheaper in one area than another, all the potential buyers will likely not know about it. Information is sporadic, and definitely not fully disclosed. This lack of full information is not on purpose...it's just a function of how the market works.

Now, combine that with the fact that if a house has certain types of repair problems for example, it cannot be financed by conventional retail lenders. So it takes all the retail buyers out of the market for that particular property, even if they wanted to buy it. Likewise, if the owner of a property has to sell quickly, let's say because his foreclosure is going to take place in 1 week...there is going to be little likelihood that a retail buyer can buy with a loan, because the process will not take place that quickly. So in summary, there are properties around that cannot be bought by retail buyers for the above reasons, and many other reasons.

When that guy tries to sell, he will only be able to sell to certain kinds of buyers, buyers who can buy with cash, and can move quickly with their cash to close a transaction. This takes a knowledgable and experienced buyer. But if you were such a buyer, you can buy very, very cheaply. The idea of course is to buy so cheap, that there is literally no risk of loss.

Now, I have bought properties in this manner for decades. My wife and I started buying properties because we wanted some stable income. It has not disappointed us. What has surprised us is how much the properties have appreciated over the years. We never expected it, or counted it. We only invested for income. Our basic strategy was to buy properties that needed repair. We bought them so cheaply that there was never a way to lose. We then repaired them, and rented them out for income. Sometimes we bought more than we could effectively repair...so we resold them to others, a nice sideline at one time.

The last time I bought a property though was in 2006, after the peak. I sold it in late 2006 for about a 15% discount to the market value at the time. This price created about a 40% cash on cash return to my wife and I in about a 5-6 month period of time. In late 2006, the market was in trouble as you may recall, but our price was so good that we sold the property very quickly. Our price was good because we bought the property very low, and then repaired.

Now, I will also tell you that I have never lost any money in real estate. But I never have bought real estate for appreciation per se. I only buy dirt cheap. If I can't buy that way, I don't buy. These days I don't buy much property....the seller would have to find me in order for me to buy. And occasionally they do that because they know I have the means to buy. The fact is I have plenty of property, I don't need more. But if I were young, I would find this market to be a market where fortunes will be made later on for those with the knowledge and expertise. Lots of deals are out there, and these days you don't have much competition like you did prior to 2005.

Now, what any of this had to do with the taxation of gold is beyond me. But you were wrong on your statement about the taxes on gold, just as you have been factually wrong about some of your other statements about gold. Whether gold goes up or down, who knows, maybe you'll be right. By the way, I have a hold in some physical gold, that I have held for years as well. I will not be selling this anytime soon, not because I necessarily think it will go up, but because I think it is a good long term holding for a portion of your money. I think some day we will see it significantly higher, although it may go down first.

I also trade gold futures...I have no position at this time. I periodically trade gold stocks as well...recently I have traded NEM on the short side, but have no position now either.

IT

Well IT, the point of the post was just to nudge you.. not get your entire flock of goats I'm sure you do just fine in your gold or realestate investments. The fact is, I don't know anything about what you do, and I don't really invest in realestate. This board is great for one thing: sentiment. There's some gem of technical analysis that comes around some times, and its great, but its rare. And a few very good traders post ideas that I wasn't even looking for. Truth be told, I wasn't looking at gold until Ah-ha mentioned it. Did some quick research, and found a statistical break point. I can't tell you long term prospects for anything. I can tell you my work suggests very good odds of another deep gold correction within a month or two. Every time I post a trade, I'm fishing

Now, what any of this had to do with the taxation of gold is beyond me. But you were wrong on your statement about the taxes on gold, just as you have been factually wrong about some of your other statements about gold.

How is dcengr wrong? Isn't gold taxed as a "collectable"?