Richard Russell....New Highs Ahead

I almost fell out of my chair when I read this.

http://www.marketwat.....6F65A5007C8C}

Yep. We are on a train going backwards but the one next to us is moving backwards faster and we think we are going forward. Have you seen the dollar lately?

I almost fell out of my chair when I read this.

http://www.marketwat.....6F65A5007C8C}

ALZHEIMER???

Well, if that isn't a reason to get out what is?

I love this part...

"One of the most famous was his buy signal that came very close to the bottom of the great 1973-74 bear market.

Another was a sell signal in late August 1987, five days after the stock market's high that summer and two months prior to the 1987 crash, the worst in U.S. stock-market history."

His "most famous" was made almost 35 years ago!
His second, the 1987 crash, was not the worst in percentage terms and, while it was a crash, time wise, it was ultimately nothing more than a correction within a secular bull that many saw coming including myself.

When things get to the point where The Fed and the legislative branch can't contain it, you're having a sea change. I would not be surprised if the theory that has been put out that a secular bear started in 2000 and 2003-07 was a bear market correction within the secular bear might prove out in time.

To think that this amount of destruction permeating so much of the world's economies is nothing more than a "correction" in an ongoing bull is, in my opinion, ridiculous. I'm still amazed at this point that so many still don't get how painful the effects of this crisis is and is going to be and how long it will take to work itself out. That also is a sign that this isn't just some "correction."

Edited by milbank, 09 April 2008 - 10:06 AM.

I almost fell out of my chair when I read this.

http://www.marketwat.....6F65A5007C8C}

ALZHEIMER???

According to his web site, he will turn 84 sometime this year.

When things get to the point where The Fed and the legislative branch can't contain it, you're having a sea change. I would not be surprised if the theory that has been put out that a secular bear started in 2000 and 2003-07 was a bear market correction within the secular bear might prove out in time.

I don't see how 2003-2007 could be a bear market correction when many of the better-known averages went to new all time highs. NDX was a notable exception.

IT

You guys are killing me here. Does his age mean that only an alzheimer victim could possibly expect new all time highs? If he weren't in his 80s he would know the market is going down, not up? IT

When things get to the point where The Fed and the legislative branch can't contain it, you're having a sea change. I would not be surprised if the theory that has been put out that a secular bear started in 2000 and 2003-07 was a bear market correction within the secular bear might prove out in time.

I don't see how 2003-2007 could be a bear market correction when many of the better-known averages went to new all time highs. NDX was a notable exception.

IT

The numbers themselves were higher but, on an inflation adjusted basis, the value was not. The markets merely did a retest of the high before continuing down. The bull market that began in earnest in 1982 was based on the germination of the same debt based game that continued through it via other games with boom and bust until now when the growth of it has now overwhelmed economies. Most importantly ours. The investment bank model that has evolved over that time and supported that bull has now crashed.

Edited by milbank, 09 April 2008 - 10:15 AM.

You guys are killing me here. Does his age mean that only an alzheimer victim could possibly expect new all time highs? If he weren't in his 80s he would know the market is going down, not up?

IT

I guess it might be possible that someone else has taken over the everyday management of his business.

You guys are killing me here. Does his age mean that only an alzheimer victim could possibly expect new all time highs? If he weren't in his 80s he would know the market is going down, not up?

IT

I agree. While I disagree with Russell's assesment, I see nothing in that article that implies any physical or mental imparement whatsoever. It never even crossed my mind. I've known a lot of pretty astute and capable people in their 80s.

Edited by milbank, 09 April 2008 - 10:58 AM.