The spy's made a very bearish irregular flat completed in the after hours yesterday. Today they are gapping it down again. Same MO. I'm still short via the OEX April 620 puts and itching to get out. We are very oversold on the 4 hour S/M oscillator.
Ideally, this should be the 8 and 17 day cycle low with next Wednesday the 17 day cycle top. The 48/56 day cycle low is due soon as today is day 54. The 8 day can run 10 and the 22 month cycle low is due next week around Monday. June 14, 2006 to April 14, 2008.
Down side targets for today are SPX 1322/1331 and overall if Monday proves to be the low 1326 as my target based on a snap back to the down trend line.
If we close no lower than say 1338/39 today, I would think we run down into early Monday next week with a gap up Friday to the 1347/48 area first then 1326 Monday. If the latter scenario happens, I believe we see no higher than 1391/92 by Wednesday next week on a "c" wave impulse with an irregular top possible by April 21 to a slightly higher point, but not likely.
In the past, the 17 day cycle peak has marked a top with at least 4 down days following it.
blu
Still Short
Started by
blustar
, Apr 10 2008 07:10 AM
2 replies to this topic
#1
blustar
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blustar
#2
SilentOne
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Posted 10 April 2008 - 08:56 AM
hi blu,
Today is a pivotal day IMO. The 20 and 50 dma sit at about 1340. I'd want to see that level hold on this pulback and a new high next week. If something more severe occurs, then we will be held in a 1250 - 1390 trading range for a while. I'll be looking for a long this morning.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#3
blustar
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- Traders-Talk User
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blustar
Posted 10 April 2008 - 09:08 AM
hi blu,
Today is a pivotal day IMO. The 20 and 50 dma sit at about 1340. I'd want to see that level hold on this pulback and a new high next week. If something more severe occurs, then we will be held in a 1250 - 1390 trading range for a while. I'll be looking for a long this morning.
cheers,
john
Right now, the daily S/M oscillator is pointing to a Monday low next week with a repeat of the last week Monday low to Wednesday high. This looks like it will be an a-b-c type rally from the low of Monday week ago with a Wave Y of "B" likely.
blu
