The State Of The Universe

LT...Either you're long or you're wrong. (1 chart)

U.F.O.

I'm w/ you L T

http://forums.techni...post?id=2400481
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=86571

Edited by bobalou, 10 April 2008 - 08:21 PM.

I'm with you bobalou. I'll go "swing trade" short in a NY minute, but long-term.....you gotta be a bull. Actually, our capitalist society depends on it. U.F.O.

Our entire economic system is collapsing. As a result, we will move from the Mark to Model philosophy that has been getting us into trouble in various ways (see S&L, Dot Com, CMBSs et. al.) for over 25 years. The equity markets had a terrific, once in a lifetime bull run in reaction to that way philosophy. The model has crashed. As a result, we will go back to a Mark to Market philosophy. This is and will continue to cause pain and the markets will be at the effect of, and reflect that just has they have reflected the opposite for a quarter century. It will not last as long as the bull by any means but, this has not yet hit Main St. the way it's going to and when that happens, that is when share prices will really swoon.

Edited by milbank, 10 April 2008 - 08:33 PM.

you bet, just think of all the jobs in ny. plus the banks .ins,hedge +-funds

milbank...I love it. You foresee global economic collapse, death and destruction and the gnashing of teeth. I see another economic obstacle ala 1998 LTCM/Russia that is already in the process of being overcome. If you believe in capitalism....the equity market must have an upward slope LT. It won't exist otherwise. That's why bear markets don't last 60 years. There is no collapse here. Not yet. U.F.O.

bobalou

I know a bunch of those guys who are displaced in NY. You think they're in a bread line right now? Not. Everyone's moving on and finding new jobs...some new careers, but they're not crying in their beer. This false picture of a society in collapse is exactly what "Big Money" wants you to see and feel. They want you to "puke your guts out" so they can own the world in 5 years time. You can be an "individual" Bear Stearns if you play your cards wrong. Don't.

U.F.O.

(1 chart)

U.F.O.

milbank...I love it.

You foresee global economic collapse, death and destruction and the gnashing of teeth. I see another economic obstacle ala 1998 LTCM/Russia that is already in the process of being overcome. If you believe in capitalism....the equity market must have an upward slope LT. It won't exist otherwise. That's why bear markets don't last 60 years. There is no collapse here. Not yet.

U.F.O.

Not yet.

I do believe in Capitalism. What you are proffering has nothing to do with it. Capitalism as I understand it is a free market regulated by supply and demand. Equity markets when run efficiently reflect this. When the markets, like anything else, keeps moving beyond that, eventually they collapse until they revert back to a proximity of fair value. Bear, Stearns no longer exists because they invested in games based on the premise that price rises beyond means eternally and bet more than their actual worth on it.

All the games that are collapsing now were based on that premise.

Bear was, of course, not the only one. But, it's not the survival of the investment banks that will determine where the markets go, the Federal Government has already shown what they will do. The thing is they are doing it with taxpayer money. Said taxpayer is not going to be bailed out by another entity. There is no other entity for the taxpayer. The taxpayer is also the consumer of goods. When those makers and sellers of goods are not selling as many goods because the taxpayer has no money to buy them, the value of their company goes down. That lower value will be reflected in the price of their stock.

I have said since I started addressing this almost a year ago, this is not going to be a fast game like we've seen in the past. This is going to be a slow, protracted, death by a thousand cuts. There will be volitility. There will be nice run ups but, this is not a liquidity problem, this is a debt problem. More precisely a default on debt problem. It will not unwind quickly or painlessly. If you think this is just another Longterm Capital situation in terms of its depth and breadth, you've not comprehended the situation at all.

Edited by milbank, 10 April 2008 - 09:42 PM.

if you believe that capitalism is simply th value of a stock index going up - and there are many who want you to believe this - then that problem is easily solved by inflation. if you believe capitalism is supposd to improve the standard of living of a nation of hard working entrepreneurial people, then we havent had it in awhile. millbank and i are in the NY area, and all those people are not getting new jobs - there arent jobs for everyone who has been laid off, and it is not because they are incompetent and lazy. no one should put what they want to believe ahead of the facts, its a sure recipie for getting ripped off. klh