This is from my blog tonight

Thursday, April 10, 2008
There is one bear scenario that's still in the background

And that's the fractal pattern from 1937 that suggested the top was around Dow 12,600ish before a leg down to Dow 12,000. As you know, I went out last friday because of that, and I think the risk STILL remains, especially with gold nearing a topping pattern.

NDX bounced where it needed to maintain an uptrend. Whether this was a false bounce or not, I don't know.

IF the break to the downside is coming, it will come tomorrow. This much is in my trading cross roads. And that would project to Dow 12,000 at a min.

There is nothing wrong with sitting aside and waiting for the market to prove itself. I don't think there's much fuel for 4% up days, so its not like I'm going to miss a big chunk of the rally.

If they can't rally during the day, they rally it at night.

Asia is up tonight, Nikkei huge, maybe why, except for SSE which just to sell back to even...

http://ichart.financ...BSESN,^HSI&.png

As I said before, I'm bullish. All technical markers I've got shows us in an IT bull trend. BUT that 1937 pattern.. its still matching.. yah sad but true. And it had to break those highs to break the pattern, and it hasn't. So sitting out for a few days ain't gonna kill me. Plus I've had a good quarter.

Honestly it took 1.8M ES contracts to make 10-15 points yesterday, tonight they can push some 7-8 points with 20k. I just do not get the logic behind it, are these few contracts represent foreign buying interest that they will buy for sure instead of thousands and thounsands used for hedging used during the regular hours? I would really enjoy, if somebody could explain how this overnight buying thing works so effectively over the prices...

Probably fishing for stops, but its a free market. People can mark things up or down as they please.

Kind of, the trading here is 1% of the daily volume, so the real fishing is actually for the next day's open. But, this still does not really explain how they can push the prices without any resistance so freely and have it stick at the next day's open...

Interesting, some large blocks came in around 1368 and push the prices lower, the resistance is alive there. ES is really ready to sell here on 30 min basis with this last pull back. STX is also forming a right shoulder at 3170 unless it pushes above it, they tried to gap it above in Europe too, but so far it didn't work, the retest looks divergent in momentum, both European and US indices are now in the same configuration. Either a right shoulder or about to trend higher. What a critical crap!

Edited by arbman, 11 April 2008 - 04:17 AM.