Why i expect another high...

It's based on the NYSE MCO spike. This is based on my personal observation of the MCO in uptrending and downtrending markets....the context thingy ! When the daily is downtrending, any MCO spike could be just a buying panic and the turn down in the MCO results in a continuation sell on the daily charts. When the daily is uptrending, the MCO spike (peak) rarely coincides with the price top. A trip to zero line and a negatively diverging MCO relative to price occurs before the market tops out. My take is still that this VST decline, whenever it ends, will take us to another marginal high on the SPX. We'll see... So i will be looking for buy signals here on the hourly charts. My first probe failed yesterday. The next one could come as early as today or on Monday. Good luck all !

It's based on the NYSE MCO spike. This is based on my personal observation of the MCO in uptrending and downtrending markets....the context thingy !

When the daily is downtrending, any MCO spike could be just a buying panic and the turn down in the MCO results in a continuation sell on the daily charts.

When the daily is uptrending, the MCO spike (peak) rarely coincides with the price top. A trip to zero line and a negatively diverging MCO relative to price occurs before the market tops out. My take is still that this VST decline, whenever it ends, will take us to another marginal high on the SPX. We'll see...

So i will be looking for buy signals here on the hourly charts. My first probe failed yesterday. The next one could come as early as today or on Monday.

Good luck all !

NAV: Couple of thoughts: this upward thrust should start to peak around 11:50 AM CDT Monday. Targets could be at least 1372 [600 day MA] or 1383. Good trading...MDW

Edited by mdwllc, 11 April 2008 - 09:54 AM.

A trip to zero line and a negatively diverging MCO relative to price occurs before the market tops out. My take is still that this VST decline, whenever it ends, will take us to another marginal high on the SPX. We'll see...

Using the 11 AM EST data of NYAD of -1353 and NAAD of -1174, the MOs are at levels of +2 and -9, respectively....so this could indeed be a pullback to the zero line.

Too much more deterioration below these levels diminshes the chances....obviously.

P

NAV, Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I Was just looking and it appears MCO did not diverge on the December counter rally on daily. I know nothing works perfectly ever time but just making sure you noticed.... I am grateful for this gap because it got this board going again! SL

NAV,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I Was just looking and it appears MCO did not diverge on the December counter rally on daily. I know nothing works perfectly ever time but just making sure you noticed....

I am grateful for this gap because it got this board going again!


SL

SL,

You are right. But the uptrend as defined by price alone, got aborted when we broke the 12/4 lows then. I was wrongly bullish then expecting new highs. But disrespecting the price trend, cost me some dollars.

Same stuff can happen here. If we break the 3/31 lows, the uptrend will get aborted. But as long as the 3/31 lows hold, the MCO promises one more marginal high on the SPX.

I'm with you NAV. I believe the low will be today mid session. The MCO thingy you were talking about is called a "buy spike". I'm looking for 1429/30 by Tuesday next week and OEX 660/661. This should finish wave B of an irregular bearish flat flag. I bought 90 April OEX 645 calls yesterday at 1.60. I bought 90 more this morning somewhere between .40 and .80 (I haven't phoned my broker yet) and will buy 90 more at mid session. That is how confident I am. blu

I'm with you NAV. I believe the low will be today mid session. The MCO thingy you were talking about is called a "buy spike". I'm looking for 1429/30 by Tuesday next week and OEX 660/661. This should finish wave B of an irregular bearish flat flag.

I bought 90 April OEX 645 calls yesterday at 1.60. I bought 90 more this morning somewhere between .40 and .80 (I haven't phoned my broker yet) and will buy 90 more at mid session. That is how confident I am.

blu

The thingy you were talking about is the MOMENTUM spike. The buy spike is a return to the zero line, where we are at now. Sorry.

blu

IMVHO....Chop up to 1360..then target is 1310ish by next Friday..maybe lower. NDX should hold up better than spx and indu and should still make a new high by the end of the month.....while spx makes a secondary high....I figure back to the 1365/70 area ....then all hell will break loose. I do see Nav's scenario of another high if we are bottoming a wave 4 of an ED C wave off the 1256 bottom....getting back above 1362 spx on a closing basis next week and I'll be more open to that.

Blu, I agree with your price targets, but your time targets are too aggressive for me. Tea, A break of SPX 1312 and this uptrend is over. That would mean the large wave C to the downside has begun. In that case, INSIDER will be buying a new boat

I'm looking for 1429/30 by Tuesday next week and OEX 660/661. This should finish wave B of an irregular bearish flat flag.

blu

What a joke! .....By Tuesday