I said last friday, when I exited

Bulls make money, bears make money. Momentum traders get slaughtered. There just isn't enough momentum before the next turn comes around and kicks you in the nuts.

When you know small, bet small. When you know big, bet big. At the moment, I know small, and will bet small. Probably closer to Dow 12,000, I will know bigger, but at the moment, I only know someone opened a can of whoop-@ss on the bulls.



If you watch rydex fund flows, it was apparent fuel was running out pretty darn quick. And people had finally reached that psychological point thursday where many shorts capitulated and went fully long. Go look at the TT polls. It is very evident. That's when the market took them to the cleaners again.

D, i wouldnt be so arragont of playing monday morning quarterback with the statement that it was Evident that the bears capitualted on thursday. Quite frankly...this mkt was set up to go higher friday and the operators would have managed this had not a shock be administered to the mkt in the form of the GE earnings. you were the one calling for bear toast and used the analogy of yelling fire in a crowded theater when the sentiment polls were heavily bearish around spx 1380....well guess what the bears were RIGHT!!! the only thing that was EVIDENT was the fact that GE missed badly and unless you knew this ahead of time then the action friday probably would have been much different...and i guarantee there was NO other market moving news that day that would have called for a three hundreed point sell off... i had the game plan in mind that we would eventually turn back down but am humble enough to know that i didnt know if that would come from 1389, 1400 or 1410...or even higher.... what is EVIDENT now is that we did turn back down on an event that the mkt did not expect....it was not at all EVIDENT prior to GE that we would break down friday... the setup on Thursday was extremely similar to the setup on march 31st!!! THAT was EVIDENT!!!

Edited by iron cross, 12 April 2008 - 01:38 PM.

let me just add something as well...if GE comes out and say PRE announces on March 31st....do we get that huge april fools rally or does the mkt sell off that Tuesday..??? I say we sell off and the mkt never does make it to 1389! but that is just a guess...

Every man will see what he wants to see. I merely gave an assessment of what I saw for the past few days based on polls, p/c, etc. If you think the shock of news moves this market, I'm totally in disagreement with you. People were already betting down BEFORE the news hit the wire. Those caught on the wrong side just didn't anticipate the news or didn't have conviction/$ to defend their positions. Did you think Paulson or Ben flapping their mouths or UBS news and what not were not bearish? The market didn't move down did it? Its all about who has money left to push it one direction or another. The day I posted bears would get scorched, I did believe that. There was a good chance based on many indicators that I rely on that it could. You can believe all you want about what you THINK may happen to the market. If it doesn't go the way you THINK, its always good to have a backup plan. When it couldn't breach the highs, I had an alternate plan, and I made some quick projections and traded on it. Thursday, when the rally started to fail, I bailed. And at night time, I calculated a pretty good gap down for the morning (much more than I expected, btw). This doesn't make me a better forecaster. This makes me a better trader in my time frame, or luckier, perhaps both. And just because you may get 1-2 heavy down days doesn't make this trend any less bullish or bearish over IT or longer time frames. All you need to know, is that we are playing a game. And we are playing against each other. Team mates change, pockets change, but the game goes on. The way you win in this game, like many other games, is to KNOW YOUR OPPONENT, THEIR WEAKNESSES, THEIR STRENGTHS, and most of all YOUR WEAKNESSES AND YOUR STRENGTHS. Things like economics, fundamentals, etc etc may play a small part, but to me, those are just alibis.

Every man will see what he wants to see. I merely gave an assessment of what I saw for the past few days based on polls, p/c, etc.

If you think the shock of news moves this market, I'm totally in disagreement with you. People were already betting down BEFORE the news hit the wire. Those caught on the wrong side just didn't anticipate the news or didn't have conviction/$ to defend their positions.

Did you think Paulson or Ben flapping their mouths or UBS news and what not were not bearish? The market didn't move down did it?

Its all about who has money left to push it one direction or another.

The day I posted bears would get scorched, I did believe that. There was a good chance based on many indicators that I rely on that it could. You can believe all you want about what you THINK may happen to the market. If it doesn't go the way you THINK, its always good to have a backup plan.

When it couldn't breach the highs, I had an alternate plan, and I made some quick projections and traded on it. Thursday, when the rally started to fail, I bailed. And at night time, I calculated a pretty good gap down for the morning (much more than I expected, btw).

This doesn't make me a better forecaster. This makes me a better trader in my time frame, or luckier, perhaps both. And just because you may get 1-2 heavy down days doesn't make this trend any less bullish or bearish over IT or longer time frames.

All you need to know, is that we are playing a game. And we are playing against each other. Team mates change, pockets change, but the game goes on. The way you win in this game, like many other games, is to KNOW YOUR OPPONENT, THEIR WEAKNESSES, THEIR STRENGTHS, and most of all YOUR WEAKNESSES AND YOUR STRENGTHS.

Things like economics, fundamentals, etc etc may play a small part, but to me, those are just alibis.

When did the mkt FAIL on thursday??? the ndx was a ROCK and the ES closed at 1363!!!

thursdays technical set up was EXACTLY like March 31st SETUP !!

based upon the polls? OEX put out a string on Wednesday showing how bearish the posters were and how bullish this would be??? how did you interpret that as bearish??

i commend you for capturing these moves...its remarkable

i lost money on april 1st and broke even on Friday...I feel robbed on Friday much like one feels after losing with pocket AA's against a flip with low offsuites

you obviously have a gift that i dont have!!!

First off, don't bet against Tea.

That's probably your biggest clue I bet against his call on thursday because I had this.. Otherwise, Tea is pure magic.

Every man will see what he wants to see. I merely gave an assessment of what I saw for the past few days based on polls, p/c, etc.

If you think the shock of news moves this market, I'm totally in disagreement with you. People were already betting down BEFORE the news hit the wire. Those caught on the wrong side just didn't anticipate the news or didn't have conviction/$ to defend their positions.

Did you think Paulson or Ben flapping their mouths or UBS news and what not were not bearish? The market didn't move down did it?

Its all about who has money left to push it one direction or another.

The day I posted bears would get scorched, I did believe that. There was a good chance based on many indicators that I rely on that it could. You can believe all you want about what you THINK may happen to the market. If it doesn't go the way you THINK, its always good to have a backup plan.

When it couldn't breach the highs, I had an alternate plan, and I made some quick projections and traded on it. Thursday, when the rally started to fail, I bailed. And at night time, I calculated a pretty good gap down for the morning (much more than I expected, btw).

This doesn't make me a better forecaster. This makes me a better trader in my time frame, or luckier, perhaps both. And just because you may get 1-2 heavy down days doesn't make this trend any less bullish or bearish over IT or longer time frames.

All you need to know, is that we are playing a game. And we are playing against each other. Team mates change, pockets change, but the game goes on. The way you win in this game, like many other games, is to KNOW YOUR OPPONENT, THEIR WEAKNESSES, THEIR STRENGTHS, and most of all YOUR WEAKNESSES AND YOUR STRENGTHS.

Things like economics, fundamentals, etc etc may play a small part, but to me, those are just alibis.

When did the mkt FAIL on thursday??? the ndx was a ROCK and the ES closed at 1363!!!

thursdays technical set up was EXACTLY like March 31st SETUP !!

based upon the polls? OEX put out a string on Wednesday showing how bearish the posters were and how bullish this would be??? how did you interpret that as bearish??

i commend you for capturing these moves...its remarkable

i lost money on april 1st and broke even on Friday...I feel robbed on Friday much like one feels after losing with pocket AA's against a flip with low offsuites

you obviously have a gift that i dont have!!!

Well, it all looked like it had peaked about 11:30 on Thursday morning and after confirmation, was out of my position by 11:45. I don't recall where all of the indices were but, I do recall the Dow being over 112 at the point I popped. One could see the train north was over for the day hence, pulling out the stogie and closing up shop before noon.

milbank

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Find Member's Posts Apr 10 2008, 11:45 AM Post #7


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QUOTE (zigzag @ Apr 10 2008, 11:18 AM)
Milbank I agree AMR is a good IT buy but I'm looking at it for the ST. I just bought some. I do appreciate your humor by the way. You and Roger crack me up.

SL: They're the airline that has been cancelling flights the last couple of days. Add to that record oil prices and AMR looks poised for an upside correction. If we can break the 20ema and that down trend line on the daily then I think we could have a scorch.


Hi Zig. Thanks I'm all for adding a little murth to the proceedings. ;-)
Kudos on your NRO buy. You're up double digits. In case you do not know NB has committed to three more months (through June) at the same monthly dividend.

As far as focus, interesting you should say that, I was confused by the futures versus the open so I waited to see how things shook out in the first 45 minutes. As reality seeped in, I hopped the train, went well past my daily destination so, I've just hopped off. Too nice a day up here in Vanillaville to pass up (clear, upper 60's) so it's back into the humidor and out for a walk.

This post has been edited by milbank: Apr 10 2008, 11:46 AM

It sure seems to me now that everyone was planning to go heavily or heavier short at the next high with the momentum divergence, the momentum peaks though have come with the price high on almost all tops since early Dec, typical of bear market rallies (and opposite of bull market lows). The cummulative A/D did not come below the 20 dma and I do not see as much deterioration as the prices did in the money flow momentum --but there is damage--, so the prices are stretched lower ahead of the internals a tiny bit and if it continues this way to make a low rapidly, it does support the sideways trading range possibility or a strong bounce for IT. I think a higher high right from here would be much more IT bullish than it could appear, but I would not count on it. I see a significant low around May 7-10 next, so there should be a better bounce later next week considering that the top came in early last week. The premiums as of Friday's close do not seem to support a big reversal or rally for early next week...