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IT update
Started by
NAV
, Apr 13 2008 12:58 AM
13 replies to this topic
#2
dcengr
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Posted 13 April 2008 - 01:03 AM
I favor it will break the 3/31 lows, but then head up to tag SPX 1400 thereafter.. but thats just one working plan.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#3
denleo
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Posted 13 April 2008 - 01:07 AM
NAV, I agree with your analysis. Although my bullish confidence level is low, I believe that bears do not have enough ammunition to push this market lower than 1320ish. I favor buying weakness early next week.
Denleo
Edited by denleo, 13 April 2008 - 01:08 AM.
#4
NAV
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Posted 13 April 2008 - 01:10 AM
I favor it will break the 3/31 lows, but then head up to tag SPX 1400 thereafter.. but thats just one working plan.
That kind of a scenario would be very unusual and confuse the hell outta everyone. I have seen that happen a few times in the past. But the scenario you are describing is the break of the daily downtrend and reestablishing the same again. That kind of a scenario would be a technical analyst's nightmare. Having said that, a break of 3/31 would turn me bearish.
#5
dcengr
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Posted 13 April 2008 - 01:18 AM
I favor it will break the 3/31 lows, but then head up to tag SPX 1400 thereafter.. but thats just one working plan.
That kind of a scenario would be very unusual and confuse the hell outta everyone. I have seen that happen a few times in the past. But the scenario you are describing is the break of the daily downtrend and reestablishing the same again. That kind of a scenario would be a technical analyst's nightmare. Having said that, a break of 3/31 would turn me bearish.
I don't know about unusual or how much people will be confused. If you say so, then maybe its better from a contrarian view.
For this leg down, I would like to see RSI5 dip below 20. That would put SPX around 1300, Dow somewhere between 12000-12100. If I get sentiment to confirm by around wednesday of next week, I'll probably act on it.
Btw.. for some reason, I got some decent odds on a gap down monday with another 3% drop... I haven't decided yet if I want to act on that..
Edited by dcengr, 13 April 2008 - 01:20 AM.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#6
eminimee
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Posted 13 April 2008 - 07:20 AM
Nav...small point..but I have the gap fill at 1329 ...don't see one at 1321.50 June..
#7
Jnavin
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Posted 13 April 2008 - 09:36 AM
"the short term trend remains up" - ?
I thought we were down 250 points on Friday and down more than 2% for the week.
Edited by Jnavin, 13 April 2008 - 09:38 AM.
#8
SemiBizz
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Posted 13 April 2008 - 10:12 AM
Yep, pretty hard for me to become more bearish on Friday's light volume decline. In the grander scope of things All that is going on here is a retest of some high volume activity from January. The entire last 3 month period was basically framed by the January 16-18 price range. So what we have is an extended sideways move trying to rationalize those high volume down days... Where did we stop on Friday? just above the 1330 1/17 high volume support low. I don't find 3/31 to be significant in this chain of events... the next support in the sequence is the last day of high volume candle low 1326.41 (4/1) In fact this chart suggests as long as we don't break the high volume low of 1/18 at 1312.51, a bounce is in order. However if that does break, then it's time to get more bearish.
Edited by SemiBizz, 13 April 2008 - 10:14 AM.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#9
qqqqtrdr
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Posted 13 April 2008 - 01:15 PM
There are a lot of conflicting signals at the moment about market direction. All my charts elude that we are at a reflection point where we can go lower or higher from where the market is currently at. If we go lower, we should at least come back and touch the reflection point before we continue the downward trend. This is not the case, if we head higher from here...... Put/Call Ratio's for CBOE and Equity are still relatively high on the 10-day average, so in the short term we should not sell off a great deal.....
Barry
#10
SemiBizz
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Posted 13 April 2008 - 01:18 PM
3 months of sideways, this could go on for another 3 mos.... 
If you don't trade here, and just hold positions, your capital stagnates against inflation, while you maintain a high risk profile.
If you don't trade here, and just hold positions, your capital stagnates against inflation, while you maintain a high risk profile.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
