An Update on ES

Attached is a 60 minutes chart of the ES. A few things that are obvious. The recent short term trend is up. When we broke above that 1372 area, that generated a new target as I look at it. That target is 1419 basis ES. Then note that we formed a flag, or a corrective pattern of some sort, which in essence test that neckline a couple of different days, the most recent of which was yesterday. Then yesterday we broke up out of the flag. In theory, the way I figure it, that might generate another target of about 1445 basis ES. Now here is the complicating factor. The breakout yesterday failed, creating what looking like the possible beginnings of a double top. A double top of course is NOT a double top until it breaks down. So right now, that is in the back of my mind. Meanwhile, after we failed, we pulled back to upper flag line on the chart, and held. ES does that all the time. So now IF, we happen to break higher, that potential double top pattern might become something else...perhaps a cup and handle. A short term target on that might be 1428. So, if you're following all these targets, I had a target of 1460 a while back that A-Ha refers to. Now I have 1419 and perhaps 1445. If we break higher that would give 1428. What I want to say about targets is what I've said for the years I've posted here....they're like parlor tricks. You're always impressed when one happens. The more important point here for now is that the trend is still up. For me, the trend would fail on an hourly close under lets say 1380. If it's gonna fail, I would expect it to do that on a gap lower type opening. That's the usual trick. Meanwhile, above, we have resistance at a variety of spots. These include the major downtrend in the SPX of about 1420. If all this sounds confusing, it shouldn't be. A break above the highs will help to define what happens next. A failed breakout tells as much as one that sticks. So right now, I closed a long yesterday. I scalped a short today. I'm flat, and looking forward to the weekend. Let's see what develops. IT [attachment=6947:60_Min_Chart_ES.png]

thanks for the analysis as swinger said..there are some big stops above 1400 that they probably want to hit!!!

Hi IT, great analysis.

I also saw a 'cup and handle' set up and 1425 tag.

A potential bullish cup & handle may be setting up.
A test and hold above 1360.
A trade above 1383 today could see the market explodes.

My Post two days ago

We still have chance to tag 1425 BEFORE May. Then all bears will come out of woodworks. So, ideally, I'll short there long QID.

My post three days ago

I am sitting on my last week's 12.5% profit, and over 25% profit for the three trades off lows of Mar 17. Nedless to say, I am too fat to make any move this week. Cash is postion too, flat as you right now until next week's big move. Thanks for the chart and analysis.

Good weekend.

gf