ARM reset schedule and 24 wk cycle low in June

Don't let this chart fool you, I am pretty sure the banks and Fed know this very well now and they are working hard to fix it for the second half of 2008 at least. I expect the prices to turn for the following 3-6 month from the June lows for another strong rally. The rates will continue to come down, so I am scaling into TLT calls here once again. I think the worst news will come out during June, this rally was the necessary breather for the bottom. Now we need to see the internals staying firm for the next 6-9 wks...



BTW, obviously the real banking trouble is coming in 2010-2011 where there will be much bigger mortgage failures (the option arms are actually mostly prime loans) since I really do not see the inflation coming down and it will squeeze the mortgage market in 2009 severely. The banks will be the ones to watch for any significant sell off OR rally for the next 2 years.

(sorry for the oversized chart)

Good luck.

Edited by arbman, 25 April 2008 - 03:47 PM.

I cant see any chart?

Me neither. U.F.O.

I was fooled because there is no chart.

dcengr... U.F.O.

(sorry for the oversized chart)

Use an image program to cut it down, man!

thanks Macro, sorry folks...