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ed rader
Edited by ed rader, 26 April 2008 - 11:12 PM.
semiconductors are a buy.....
Started by
ed rader
, Apr 26 2008 11:10 PM
16 replies to this topic
#1
ed rader
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Posted 26 April 2008 - 11:10 PM
i'm pretty much loaded up on several semiconductor names. demand is getting better and the big guy expects it to stay that way until the end of the year, maybe early next year when this bottom should prove to be a false bottom.
the theory is that demand never got as bad as customers thought and chip inventories are dangerously low and customers are rushing to replenish their shelves.
of course when the consumer does drop off we will again seeking the real bottom ..........or so the theory goes anyway .
ed rader
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ed rader
#2
StillLearnin
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Posted 26 April 2008 - 11:26 PM
I have two charts....one showing SMH about to run into brick wall...the other showing possible breaking a pivot line on $SOX (ZigZag's old chart). Same group but charts look slightly different...
http://stockcharts.c...8046&r=4226.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SOX&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=10&i=p28694916583&a=135608501&r=4189.png
http://stockcharts.c...8046&r=4226.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SOX&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=10&i=p28694916583&a=135608501&r=4189.png
#3
StillLearnin
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Posted 27 April 2008 - 12:27 PM
Just added the Fib levels July 07 levels....That brick wall ahead on SMH is also right at 38.2%
#4
SemiBizz
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Posted 27 April 2008 - 12:54 PM
http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif
I think we're closer to a SELL now than a buy, in price and time. Buy was a couple weeks ago....This was my pick of the litter... If we get a test of the 12.31 4/24 low, I'd be tempted to add for the final run to 13.97 - 16.02.
I think we're closer to a SELL now than a buy, in price and time. Buy was a couple weeks ago....This was my pick of the litter... If we get a test of the 12.31 4/24 low, I'd be tempted to add for the final run to 13.97 - 16.02.
Edited by SemiBizz, 27 April 2008 - 12:56 PM.
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Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#5
U.F.O.
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U.F.O.
Posted 27 April 2008 - 02:07 PM
ed rader, I agree with your bullish $SOX call 100%. One hurdle, however, is the 9 month downtrend line that we hit on Thursday. Momentum favors an upside break. This puts $SOX facing the same downtrend line tests as the major indices. Positive divergences are abundant here. I include daily and weekly examples. (4 charts)
U.F.O.
U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~
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#6
StillLearnin
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Posted 27 April 2008 - 03:44 PM
Why is my chart different?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SOX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=10&i=p85178658751&a=137564753&r=6561.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SOX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=10&i=p85178658751&a=137564753&r=6561.png
#7
U.F.O.
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U.F.O.
Posted 27 April 2008 - 04:20 PM
You're using a semi-log chart, mine is a standard arithmetic scale.
U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~
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#8
StillLearnin
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Posted 27 April 2008 - 04:25 PM
You're using a semi-log chart, mine is a standard arithmetic scale.
U.F.O.
Why would you do that?
#9
U.F.O.
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U.F.O.
Posted 27 April 2008 - 04:28 PM
Why would I not do that? I use semi log charts more for LT charting than shorter time frames. There is no absolute right or wrong in what type of chart one uses.
U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~
~Benjamin Franklin~
#10
ed rader
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Posted 27 April 2008 - 05:49 PM
just bear in mind that the call is based on current fundamentals. the same fundamentals that had us selling EVERYTHING last mother's days and buying a basket of beaten down acquisition candidates beginning a couple of month ago.
my gut tells me we are going down but the big guy says that'll be later this year after inventories are replenished and the consumer drops off.
dyodd of course. i'm buying mostly for longer term.
ed rader
