Talking heads on Bloomberg

Here are the issues debated back and forth, but there was concensus in these;

Financials most likely bottomed and they should lead, but in another program, the CEO of Wells Fargo could not respond a simple question about what he sees in the second half. He says the subprime exposure should peak in June, he must be talking about the same Credit Suisse chart that I tried to post on Friday. Instead, he would say the continued mortgage problems depend on the data incoming just like the Fed.

A technical analyst said 1400 is most likely a resistance or where some trading will continue to take place because the volume is so far weak for a convincing penetration. You can be sure that the index will overshoot it now. Come on now, what is the point of forcing this 1400 line since January and not even go to the downtrend line of the channel?!?

Another bunch of managers said that it usually takes about 6 months to form a base, so they think a trading range will follow, you can be also sure that the market will overshoot on the downside. I think there seems to be a concensus forming to buy the lows in the next 2 months during "a trading range" and they think the financials will be the best area to buy...

I am getting awefully bad feelings about this market, the concensus is really worrying me here. The financial sector was entering into the worst depression a few weeks ago, now the Fed simply saved the ship and now everybody can pile up in the sector???

I believe the last squeeze will convince a lot of people and then comes the disaster...

Edited by arbman, 27 April 2008 - 03:48 AM.

consensus... awfully... eventually I will spell them right...

XLF can certainly try a little higher, but even though the sector looks washed out, I am still not a big fan of buying it due to the steep down trend in the longer time frames. I certainly doubt this one will just take off without looking back...

How many folks think we're headed for new highs? I'd say that's the anti-consensus. The time to worry will be when the economy looks much better. When everyone thinks that we ducked the worst of it, then the fed has to suck up the liquidity. FIRST that liquidity has to find a home and that'll be the stock market (what? It's going to go into real estate? ). Mark

"... then the fed has to suck up the liquidity.

I thought the Fed doesn't do that any more..

"... then the fed has to suck up the liquidity.

I thought the Fed doesn't do that any more..

That's what they all think...

Mark

Mark obviously doing too much fishing and not enough magazine and TV watching... See some of the bullish covers on the financial mags? Boools and Bears this weekend ... Even Peter Schiff wasn't that bearish here... They all pounding the table..." Da bottom is IN !!" Saying Stuff, like "you gotta buy, you gotta own"....

Mark,

The issue is not the new highs, the issue is the obvious break out. We are at the break out boundary and the Fed is about to cap the easy liquidity here...

In January:

The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

In March:

Inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen. The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, reflecting a projected leveling-out of energy and other commodity prices and an easing of pressures on resource utilization. Still, uncertainty about the inflation outlook has increased. It will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

The inflation is only getting worse. What will the market do if they say the inflation is becoming detrimental to the long term sustainability of the economic growth, what will happen to USD if they act otherwise?!? This country still needs a lot of financing for a long time...

Honestly, naive me, I also think the lows might be in, but I don't think this will be one way up and I think a lot of folks are thinking this is the pending break out, instead it will subsequently come back and at least retest any upside move in the next sessions, but I think it is too early to sustain a move up...

Fed can not afford to ruin April, it is the first up month, so I do not expect them to do something silly here. I was thinking about a 50bps cut, but the market is telling us otherwise...

Edited by arbman, 28 April 2008 - 01:15 PM.