Folks I am ready, my fingers and my eyes, with all my organs, I am sync with the market. I was wondering what you guys thinking about shorting SPX. I am not a time oriented trader. I believe price rules, please give me your ideal spot to short this sucker !!!
Where can I hammer S&P500
Started by
A-ha
, Apr 28 2008 08:43 AM
5 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 28 April 2008 - 08:43 AM
#2
Posted 28 April 2008 - 08:52 AM
I recommend a phased approach...
1402
1409
1416
I'd be stopped out over 1425.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#3
Posted 28 April 2008 - 09:02 AM
My favorite way of looking at SPX right now is that the weekly tag of 1398 right at the start of Feb was the retest of the broken TL going back to April of '03, and this is just icing on the cake. Otherwise 1446-1450. If neither, opens the door to a hyperbullish scenario.
#4
Posted 28 April 2008 - 09:11 AM
You guys are forgetting the equally strong resistance level at 1427.
Iwould not be surprised to see one strong up move (price wise) before we roll over....perhaps caused by Fed?
#5
Posted 28 April 2008 - 09:13 AM
For me, i wouldn't short unless XLF takes out Friday's low.
#6
Posted 28 April 2008 - 09:35 AM
My signal lines just crossed positive at a high level (after a sell signal was negated). That hasn't happened for five months. I don't have the work in front of me (it's at home) but I remember the numbers well. Going back to 2003, this has happenend 29 times. Of those 29 times the market has closed higher 10 trading days later 20 times, 20 trading days later 20 times, and 30 trading days later 20 times. 20 of 29 for all three. This hasn't happened for five months (a positive cross at this level). The last three were failures....at all three points as the market was in a confirmed downtrend. If the condition has changed (and I believe it has), then watch out. There have been seven crosses over a hundred points higher than the above mentioned "high level". Those tend to be after a cluster of high crosses over a few weeks and appear to signal a tiring of the move. Of those seven, the market has been higher 10 and 20 trading days later almost every time but has only been higher 1 time out of seven 30 TD's later. Factor those out, yet still include the three failures in 07, and the market has been higher 30 trading days later 19 out of the last 22 times my signal lines crossed positive at the current level.










