All's fair in love and war.
Especially in commodities markets. With all the profits they make, they can just dump it right back into buying crude to prop up the prices.
Sentiment in oil is at bullish extremes. But there's rumors going around the government is planning more military action in middle east because Iran's not being nice.
Oil to hit $200
OPEC says oil can hit $200/barrel
Started by
dcengr
, Apr 28 2008 10:16 PM
5 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 28 April 2008 - 10:16 PM
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#3
Posted 28 April 2008 - 10:49 PM
Well you strip out the taxes, then compare prices. Part of the problem with prices in UK and US is the amount of taxes they shove on this thing. And in other countries like China, its subsidized by the government.
Then in the US, we have additives that add to the cost... its not a straight black and white comparison.
I think whats more fair is relative % increase in gas over the same price increase in oil.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#5
Posted 29 April 2008 - 01:04 AM
Honestly, just check XLE May open interest, the puts are so much that it makes no sense to be short the sector at the moment, but I did sell short the sector for a pull back. I am actually quite worried that Fed's statement with an inflation emphasis might trigger a Treasury sell off rather than a commodity sell off first. The banks would definitely get hit hard there where there is some bullish excess accumulating, but not much...
I am basically expecting a sell off in one of the major asset groups, either commodities, equities or Treasuries. I was thinking so far that a commodity sell off would not come unless the equities sell off and in this case the Treasuries should somewhat rally. I am not sure anymore...
#6
Posted 29 April 2008 - 07:42 AM
OPEC forecasting higher prices is scary, right now. They've been saying the markets have plenty of oil and high prices are the result of speculation all the way up.....
As far as those XLE puts; I own some of 'em. Weekly charts of so many petro related stocks are challenging ATH levels so I've guessed a few weeks of consolidation at mininmum.










