ES

Key number in VST is ES 1398. Yesterday, the goons got kinda sneaky with the dip at the close. It painted a divergence on the SPX but it was not confirmed by the ES or the other major indexes. That might have been the ambush setup I was alluding to below. We'll see soon enough.

Stop/reverse numbers remain the same as yesterday. Bullish above/bearish below in the various timeframes.

I have never seen the goons make such an obvious short entry easy--and this setup seems no different.

Right now the numbers say bears are right in the VST until/unless 1398 gets taken out.

I have not yet seen the multi-index divergences that usually mark an important IT top and we won't get that today unless something really dramatic happens in the next 20 minutes.

Looking for 1385 if this pullback continues--if they go the other way then original ES 1421/ SPX 1407 targets come back in play.

...my .02



From yesterday morning ES post...

Today, the futures have finally cleared the key 1402 area--so for the first time since the March 17 lows, I am cautiously watching for the setup into a climatic selling point.

Things have pretty much gone as expected since my posts at the lows and the ES is up almost 150 points since the 1257 buy.

My 'forensics' post from April 2 at:

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=363808

summed up the setup including the targets for this leg which are SPX 1407 and ES 1421.

We are nearing a key downtrend line at ES 1405-ish. It would not surprise me to see that line used as an ambush point--with the actual price high test coming near the target numbers I posted. Everybody and I do mean e-v-e-r-y-b-o-d-y sees that trend line, so they likely aren't going to accommodate everyone with an easy and profitable sell now, are they? Still seems to be a large contingent of bears holding and hoping and I speculate that those guys need to be separated from their money before this will be taken down again. A failure of that downtrend line to hold should do the trick to dash all bearish hope. Sorry to be so crass if you are one of those bears--but that is likely the way the goons are looking at things, in my opinion.

I am now tightening my stops for partials on the longer-term stuff to lock in the gains to date. I fully expect to be stopped out soon on those--possibly in the Fed volatility and that is okay by me. There is an additional 20 points between here and my reversal target, perhaps--but the most expensive points and most difficult to obtain are usually the one's closest to the target. Not much I can do here but just push up the trailing stops and see what happens. Frankly, I would be delighted to see them keep going and break this out--since bear markets are good for nobody.

I will not get short until I see a particular price/momentum divergence signature peculiar to bear markets that I look for. If it comes, then I will sell it all and make the switch in bias and join the dark side on selected hit and run attacks. When I get short--I will most likely be on the other side of the consensus if I get the entry right, but that is fine by me.

As of this morning my stop/reversal lines are as follows:

VST = 1398
ST = 1384
IT = 1311
LT = 1309

The trends are up if price is above and down if price crosses below.

...my .02

Think I am going to quit posting here as often. I can't afford to be pinned into defending a particular (temporary) bias the way I trade. Nothing good comes from that. I have tried to explain that my bias is determined by a specific set of numbers and when they change, I change. I doesn't seem to matter that day in and day out I post exactly where I stand on the market and what it would take to cause me to change. I seem to have riled a prominent poster and that is too bad. It is best just to move on rather than to stay embroiled in silly tit for tat arguments and endure snide digs in other threads. The guy disagrees vehemently with my PRESENT bias on the market and has decided to let me know about it, apparently. I don't like bear markets--but I have no such dislike for people who are (temporarily) bearish. Bear markets are zero-sum games that very few escape unscathed. That so many seem to be chomping at the bit and actually wishing for a collapse back into a protracted secular bear market is just sad. Hope somebody got something from my posts--the intent was to share, that's all. Best to all

doesn't seem to matter that day in and day out I post exactly where I stand on the market and what it would take to cause me to change

...it matters.

There was a major stream of urination contest going on here, and unfortunately you got positioned in the middle of it... Now I think your remarks may have been misunderstood, and on another day would have just been taken with a grain of salt... Hang in there...

Semi, it is a shame when these "urination contests" get out of hand. I'd like to apologize for my part in the one that happened with you the other night.

U.F.O.

Fair Enough UFO... my apologies as well. Good Luck in your trades.

Think I am going to quit posting here as often.

I can't afford to be pinned into defending a particular (temporary) bias the way I trade. Nothing good comes from that.

I have tried to explain that my bias is determined by a specific set of numbers and when they change, I change. I doesn't seem to matter that day in and day out I post exactly where I stand on the market and what it would take to cause me to change.

I seem to have riled a prominent poster and that is too bad. It is best just to move on rather than to stay embroiled in silly tit for tat arguments and endure snide digs in other threads. The guy disagrees vehemently with my PRESENT bias on the market and has decided to let me know about it, apparently.

I don't like bear markets--but I have no such dislike for people who are (temporarily) bearish. Bear markets are zero-sum games that very few escape unscathed. That so many seem to be chomping at the bit and actually wishing for a collapse back into a protracted secular bear market is just sad.

Hope somebody got something from my posts--the intent was to share, that's all.

Best to all

Misunderstandings happen at times. I don't want to go into the details particularly, but I think the best course here would be to just shake it off. The other poster has nothing against your "present bias". He's a swing trader, he's goes both ways. Besides, I like looking at your numbers. Again, I'd let whatever you think took place go.

IT

U2 U.F.O.

U2

U.F.O.

what happened to your Mencken quote... you lower the black flag? ... i liked that one... -TA

LOL! I just need a change every now and then. I started reading "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" for the 7th time and had Jesse Livermore on the brain. This new quote felt good. Thx. for noticing TA.

U.F.O.