The mid May low has been obliterate by rephasing. Moving from a 145 to 142 fundamental
cycle.
Monday has another cycle peak and mostly flat until expiration, they have there
usual games around May 9,12 but it's not a general decline.
High mon, minor low 5/9, first high 5/19, surge to 6/2 about 100 NDX said and done.
Mon might be the last spot to close May calls with a low coming up May 9.
No lows in May
Started by
AChartist
, May 02 2008 04:46 PM
5 replies to this topic
#1
AChartist
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Tim
Posted 02 May 2008 - 04:46 PM
"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know
some of them, and they don't work" M.Jordan
#2
arbman
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Quant
Posted 02 May 2008 - 05:42 PM
I think there will be a good low later next week, but I agree that the market is quite hedged on both sides.
May equity and etf options;
%-change calls puts
-5 2.42 6.19
-4 2.74 5.63
-3 3.11 5.14
-2 3.53 4.73 <<== where do you think you are going?!?
-1 4.02 4.40
0 4.55 4.13
1 5.16 3.91
2 5.83 3.71 <<== no kidding!
3 6.56 3.55
4 7.36 3.41
5 8.22 3.29
The time is bulling up people rather than bearing up though since the momentum has been up...
May equity and etf options;
%-change calls puts
-5 2.42 6.19
-4 2.74 5.63
-3 3.11 5.14
-2 3.53 4.73 <<== where do you think you are going?!?
-1 4.02 4.40
0 4.55 4.13
1 5.16 3.91
2 5.83 3.71 <<== no kidding!
3 6.56 3.55
4 7.36 3.41
5 8.22 3.29
The time is bulling up people rather than bearing up though since the momentum has been up...
#3
eminimee
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- TT Member
- 14,307 posts
I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 02 May 2008 - 06:51 PM
//....I've said enough this week..all I know is...the lows will be taken out....sooner than later.. we still have at least another 200/300 spx points to go on the downside....first target is still 1140....then 1060
Edited by Teaparty, 02 May 2008 - 06:56 PM.
#4
arbman
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Quant
Posted 02 May 2008 - 07:52 PM
Don't you see TP? Fed has absorbed $200B of junk mortgage debt into its portfolio and noone bothered to ask, Treasuries barely budged down, but it is coming. But the perception here is they can absorb a $1T and as long as the USD doesn't crash, nobody cares about the inflation...
#5
scott in Wisconsin
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Member
Posted 02 May 2008 - 07:57 PM
//....I've said enough this week..all I know is...the lows will be taken out....sooner than later.. we still have at least another 200/300 spx points to go on the downside....first target is still 1140....then 1060
Sure. Sooner or Later. But based on the presidential cycle, it's almost certainly later. Much later.
I plan on being out of all stock longs by May, 2009, when the historical presidential cycle turns down. (Technically, the first day after May 15th 2009 that the QQQQ moves below it's 50 day moving average)
The low you're calling for will likely come roughly in August - October 2010.
("Beat the Market the Easy Way" by Sy Harding)
But it's way too early to be playing that low!
Scott
#6
kc135a
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Member
Posted 04 May 2008 - 06:53 AM
//....I've said enough this week..all I know is...the lows will be taken out....sooner than later.. we still have at least another 200/300 spx points to go on the downside....first target is still 1140....then 1060
Next week? No. 2nd half of this August? Maybe.
KC
