One trading system I look at, suggests there is a 80% probability of a 420 point drop in the DOW. One note, if the dollar does keep rallying. It will drop earning of overseas companies. I do not see any way out of this for stocks, there has to be a correction. They are just mitigating it right now, because of elections this year.
Rick
420 point drop
Started by
oextrader
, May 03 2008 03:46 PM
5 replies to this topic
#1
oextrader
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#2
eminimee
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 03 May 2008 - 03:50 PM
Didn't you just have a 94% certainty that we would see new highs ??
#3
dcengr
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Posted 03 May 2008 - 04:00 PM
Didn't you just have a 94% certainty that we would see new highs ??
Like many things, both things can come true. First the 80%, then the 94%
.Btw, I think the 400 point drop is doable too.
Edited by dcengr, 03 May 2008 - 04:01 PM.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#4
oextrader
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Posted 03 May 2008 - 04:11 PM
Didn't you just have a 94% certainty that we would see new highs ??
That has not changed, that does not mean either system will be wrong if no new signals are generated. We can correct, and still rally, but I think I specified a specific target that is 847 SPX points away that is still says is 85% probable if no new signal is generated. We are well above the maximum adverse excursion if we do not get a new signal. This one fits the chart I have posted though.
Rick
#5
blustar
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blustar
Posted 03 May 2008 - 11:20 PM
What about a 600 point drop? Is that doable soon?
I'm looking for a 600 point+ drop this week and then a strong rally back to just above the previous recovery high within 6 trading days, that is from last Friday to Monday next.
blu
#6
oextrader
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Posted 04 May 2008 - 01:22 AM
What about a 600 point drop? Is that doable soon?
I'm looking for a 600 point+ drop this week and then a strong rally back to just above the previous recovery high within 6 trading days, that is from last Friday to Monday next.
blu
That may well happen, the system may stay short if we get that kind of drop.
Rick
