A Buy & Hold Portfolio

Another month and I will again post my permanent buy & hold index portfolio. I am sure some traders beat this portfolio, net for profits less losses and tading costs in the first 4 months of the year. Not sure what percentage of traders did. I Shares S&P GSCI Commodities ETF +19.61% YTD 05% of portfolio. Vanguard Emergining Markets Index Fund -1.75% YTD 05% of portfolio Vanguard Total International Index Fund -2.21% YTD 15% of portfolio Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund -3.3% YTD 25% of portfolio Vanguard Investment Grade Bond Fund +0.86% YTD 15% of portfolio Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund +1.72% YTD 35% of portfolio YTD return on permanent buy & hold portfolio +0.51% As I said a market portfolio that traders have to beat or why do they trade. I am sure some do beat it, but not sure how many. Or how many will be ahead of it at the end of 10 years. In addition I also have a small ( 20% of permanent portfolio) trading portfolio that followes the IBD Big Picture signals. It received a buy signal on March 20, 2008. Bought SPY's on March 21,2008 in it. It is now up about 4%. I used to post trades here in real time on this portfolio, but stopped last fall. This is the 4th buy signal since them. First 3 resulted in small losses(total about 3%). Will hold present buy until I get a sell signal. Have no idea when that will be. As I have posted here in the past I never predict what the market will do. Don't think I can do it and doubt anyone else can. I let the market tell me. I never try to tell the market what to do. Good luck to anyone who thinks they can. Charles

Edited by tuffy88, 04 May 2008 - 11:09 AM.

Thanks again Charles. Your posts are appreciated and educational. For one thing, they display my favorite saying: There are lots of ways to do lots of things. Keep in touch, Roger

Hi Charles, Thanks for sharing those words of wisdom. I share your way of thinking. I would bet that less than 5% of those who attempt to trade the market are able to do so successfully. I have had my greatest success buying good stocks when nobody wants them and selling them when they return to favor. That often takes more patience than most are willing to commit to. It's good to hear from someone who has a trading plan that goes beyond the short term at best. I often feel as if I am all alone in my thinking. Not necessarily a bad thing. Best of luck, Mike

Charles, You should think long and hard about a 'permanent' portfolio. The United States is no Japan, but if it can happen in Japan, it can surely happen here. The top in the Nikkei was in 1990. It hasn't recovered in a looooong time. It all depends, ofcourse, on your investment needs. But if you have no additional source of income (ie retired), then riding out a secular bear could be quite painful. Never say never. But don't panic either.

For a couple of guys who really don't have a clue how well traders do, you guys certainly are opinionated about what they do. Why not simply post your results and leave out the dialogue about traders? IT

Looks like your commodities ETF doing great, I just bought one in the AG group - DBA. Any opinion? I know nothing except that it was a good trade setup.

For a couple of guys who really don't have a clue how well traders do, you guys certainly are opinionated about what they do. Why not simply post your results and leave out the dialogue about traders?

IT

For a couple of guys who really don't have a clue how well traders do, you guys certainly are opinionated about what they do. Why not simply post your results and leave out the dialogue about traders?

IT

IT,

My statement was not meant to be a knock on traders, I simply shared an opinion about the difficulty of being successful trading the market. Is that not the purpose of this forum? I consider myself to be a trader, it's just that for the most part my time frame is much longer than most others.

Fwiw...I promise to post my results after the harvest has been completed.

There sure are a lot of traders around here on edge lately. What's up with that?

Edited by emdee, 04 May 2008 - 04:46 PM.

Read my post from a few weeks ago where I said people will go nuts.. Note, the Dow is only about 170 points higher (what, 1.5%?) from 4/18, yet many are now far more bullish than before. I mean FAR more bullish.. by many measures of sentiment. And people are talking long term investments again.. greatest buying opportunity since 2003 bottom, or so I've heard.

greatest buying opportunity since 2003 bottom, or so I've heard.

Hi dcengr,

The last couple of months has absolutely provided some of the best buying opportunities of the last many years in select areas. That is my opinion and I'm sticking to it. Make of it what you will.

M

Edited by emdee, 04 May 2008 - 05:06 PM.