Today's action is much too strong for a big fall. Good support at 1395/96 Tuesday to what may look like a running correction and a move to 1450 may be in the cards by May 12.
I'm closing out shorts tomorrow.
blu
Market Too Strong To Fall Much
Started by
blustar
, May 05 2008 09:30 AM
8 replies to this topic
#1
blustar
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blustar
#2
SemiBizz
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Posted 05 May 2008 - 09:49 AM
Totally normal ops for SPX to hold around the .50 before the big move begins...
Jury is still out.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
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Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#3
SemiBizz
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Posted 05 May 2008 - 10:00 AM
Pull up your 3 min SPX candlestick chart ..
Tell me, you think it's strong? Gapping away on the 3 min on volume? Repeatedly?
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#4
qqqqtrdr
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Posted 05 May 2008 - 10:15 AM
I'm bullish on the market also here, but I don't think it is that strong at the moment. Adv/Dec have not fallen off the board yet, but we haven't had broad based buying either. Over the last few weeks I expect a grind higher, until we have a blow-off top ( Outside the bollinger bands on the indicies ) which has not happened yet. AAII is bullish at the moment. If this continues for a couple more weeks, I would think a top would be in order, but so far it seems like a somewhat subdued bullish market.
Barry
#5
blustar
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blustar
Posted 05 May 2008 - 10:15 AM
Just being defensive here. If we break 1395 today, then the next support area would be the 1353 area by Wednesday and then after that 1320 by Wednesday. Also watching 1340.
So, Semi, your work suggests a lot more down side?
TIA,
blu
#6
ogm
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Posted 05 May 2008 - 10:21 AM
I think the advance is loosing steam. Look at the MCO for example. Lower peaks are especcialy noticable on the Naz MCO. And once again we have the same 4-5 stocks leading the bulk of the advance on the Naz. The overall A/D hasn't been that strong during the past couple weeks.
The overal structure is still bullish, but we had a very good move up already and fear has been gradualy evaporating.
So I think a pullback is coming. Probably it will stall here for a couple days before making a turn, though.
#7
SemiBizz
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Posted 05 May 2008 - 10:25 AM
What I see is a reaction to the 5/7 high here after being tested up and over that .50, consolidation zone around 1383. That's back in the trading range, and then we see.
Volume suggests market is pretty happy going down here.
Bullish factors include AAPL over 180.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#8
linrom1
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Posted 05 May 2008 - 10:41 AM
This sell off is accompanied by lots of news noise how market is overvalued and how protection premium on puts is the highest since 2004( I am not sure of this, but, regardless, 2004 was very good year.)
While VIX is rising, my modified VIX is actually falling off the cliff. Also, how can there be a sell off of any duration with energy and materials climbing higher?
Also, there was a lot of calling buying in the morning when the market was falling.
Edited by linrom1, 05 May 2008 - 10:45 AM.
#9
pdx5
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I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 05 May 2008 - 11:31 AM
<< how can there be a sell off of any duration with energy and materials climbing higher? >>
Is'nt that what they said about housing 12 months ago?
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
