Risk free Trading

What a day! I went flat this morning when the S&P moved back above 1400. I guess that now that the FED has moved from avoiding “Moral Hazard” to achieving it, the only risk I see is to the US taxpayer and our so called “free market”. I wonder how much the last 100 points on the S&P cost us. On the bright side at least it was Dollars and not EURO’s! Well I guess that is just the way it is and will have to trade it that way. I like to mostly day trade so not a lot of adjustment for me, but I still like to know what the trend is.

Dont fight city hall, monitization is the game since 1980. I figured it out in 1987.

Stocks go with inflation because they are reported in dollar count, not dollar value.

What a day! I went flat this morning when the S&P moved back above 1400. I guess that now that the FED has moved from avoiding “Moral Hazard” to achieving it, the only risk I see is to the US taxpayer and our so called “free market”. I wonder how much the last 100 points on the S&P cost us. On the bright side at least it was Dollars and not EURO’s!


Well I guess that is just the way it is and will have to trade it that way. I like to mostly day trade so not a lot of adjustment for me, but I still like to know what the trend is.

I always have to remind myself that it is in the best interest of millions of people for stocks to advance, and in the best interest of just a handful of players for them not to. That's the mo.

I always have to remind myself that it is in the best interest of millions of people for stocks to advance, and in the best interest of just a handful of players for them not to. That's the mo.

I love a Bull market just as much as anybody. I trade both long and short (sometimes in the same day). But I think that Bull and Bear markets are like night and day. You can’t have one with out the other, the Bull to reward progress and the Bear to remove excess. In the past we let the market make these decisions now it’s the FED. I do not believe that this is a healthy situation at all. Believe me the Bear will come and the longer we try and hold it back the worse it will be. Where is our Paul Volcker when we need him?

I think the consolidation will continue 1-2 days more. I think banks might be also near an IT top until the end of June or so. If they hang around up here for the next 2 wks with the huge puts underneath (check out XLF's open interest!), the tech and energy might be able squeeze SPX to 1340-1350. The IT trend is still up, but slowly turning flat, I think this will eventually turn the longer term trend up around the end of June. It does need a pull back as the ST momentum continues to deteriorate...

The bond market is telling us that the yield curve is still steep, I doubt that there is a LT top right here. I would wait until the ST yields move higher with a flatter yield curve before a top with the signs of steady deterioration in the breadth (new highs vs lows). The banks should be OK until this happens. My IT top call is basically technical and the last wave of mortgage defaults approaching around June-July. I believe the market will be cautious ahead of these. If the banks do not make a lower low, I think SPX 1500 should be possible during Jul-Sep period...

The financials (IXM = XLF) did not make a higher high today;

http://ichart.financ...LP,XLB,XLU&.png

I think we will see XLI outperform SPX for a day or two before an IT top and an IT consolidation will begin...

I always have to remind myself that it is in the best interest of millions of people for stocks to advance, and in the best interest of just a handful of players for them not to. That's the mo.

I love a Bull market just as much as anybody. I trade both long and short (sometimes in the same day). But I think that Bull and Bear markets are like night and day. You can't have one with out the other, the Bull to reward progress and the Bear to remove excess. In the past we let the market make these decisions now it's the FED. I do not believe that this is a healthy situation at all. Believe me the Bear will come and the longer we try and hold it back the worse it will be. Where is our Paul Volcker when we need him?

I've pondered this for a while and I think you're going to be surprised at how ugly the Fed is going to be toward the stock market next year or maybe even this fall.

Right now, the Fed is using the stock market to sop up excess liquidity and to fund the clean up of the subprime counter party mess. Later, they'll sop up the excess and suck it out of the market. THEN we see our recession and our real Bear market.

Mark

I always have to remind myself that it is in the best interest of millions of people for stocks to advance, and in the best interest of just a handful of players for them not to. That's the mo.

I love a Bull market just as much as anybody. I trade both long and short (sometimes in the same day). But I think that Bull and Bear markets are like night and day. You can't have one with out the other, the Bull to reward progress and the Bear to remove excess. In the past we let the market make these decisions now it's the FED. I do not believe that this is a healthy situation at all. Believe me the Bear will come and the longer we try and hold it back the worse it will be. Where is our Paul Volcker when we need him?

I've pondered this for a while and I think you're going to be surprised at how ugly the Fed is going to be toward the stock market next year or maybe even this fall.

Right now, the Fed is using the stock market to sop up excess liquidity and to fund the clean up of the subprime counter party mess. Later, they'll sop up the excess and suck it out of the market. THEN we see our recession and our real Bear market.

Mark

Mark

I will be surprised if they can hold it up that long but it is obvious that they are going to try. This is the biggest prop job any country has ever attempted and it is all to try and keep the market from tanking before the elections. It is hard to imagine how much this is going to cost the taxpayer. This will definitely be the most expensive election we have ever had.

I can’t believe that there are people who are fighting to be elected President and will inherit this mess, but I guess you can’t find a more recession proof job with such great fringe benefits.

This is merely a Bull market. I think that the Bear was a fake out for equity players, but the Fed doesn't care about the market, they care about disaster in the economy. This rally is merely a byproduct of that. Later the earnings will support it, then down we go. The thing is, stocks aren't being propped, they're just the only place for a lot of money to go and they look good due to weak dollar earnings. Don't get in the way. Mark

This is merely a Bull market. I think that the Bear was a fake out for equity players, but the Fed doesn't care about the market, they care about disaster in the economy. This rally is merely a byproduct of that. Later the earnings will support it, then down we go.

The thing is, stocks aren't being propped, they're just the only place for a lot of money to go and they look good due to weak dollar earnings. Don't get in the way.

Mark

Your right Mark, this is just our Government working towards the greater good for everyone, as they always do. Silly of me to think it would be anything else.

The Fed isn't the Feds... They have their own agenda. It's all irrelevant, however. They aren't proping stocks they're propping the financial system generally. The Fed'll KILL the market without hesitation later. Watch. Mark