Semi

I see that the bear case for tech includes the argument that tech customers will not be spending - the consumer because it can't and corporate won't make capital investments until there is a little more clarity about the future. What is your take?

Well, there's a lot to it, but I can summarize it for you... Short term consumer weakness. The problem is that consumer has been the strength of the electronics business since the dotcom crash in 2000. Now we need to see companies invest in new equipment and hiring. However this is not happening at the moment. The problem is that the electronics industry is in a consolidation and convergence. The three sectors, communications (telephony), computing (computers internet) and consumer (broadcast tv and audio) all developed separately. In the future all the content comes over single networks and existing networks do not mesh. The way we use the internet will change dramatically. You can see this in the mobile sector today with I-phone type of products, but these are crude compared to what we will have in the future. The fixed side cannot get there without the network infrastructure, and that will take YEARS. End result will be a smaller electronics industry, not bigger. So, from stocks and investing viewpoint. Market will chase growth, but growth for now is limited to niche stuff like Blackberry and I-phone. So it's late to the party there, but too early to invest into the next generation network infrastructure, besides the gorillas of that play haven't been identified.... Going to be a couple of tough years ahead...