Hurst price projections & Cycles

Finally we have approached the outstanding 1431 projection given by the 10 week fld although we have not fully met that projection and could go a little bit higher. There are no other longer or shorter projections higher on the daily charts. The shorter term half hourly charts have continued to give slightly higher projections with each pullback and subsequent rally. The last three downside projections on the half hourly chart, have all fallen slightly short while all three upside projections, with the last being yesterday to 1421 continue to be met or slightly exceeded. A clear sign of strength at least for the short term. I have included a chart of the S&P from just before August low to just after the October high. You can see the two projections given by the 10 week fld and then comparing to the 2nd chart from the March lows, the similarity in times and distance. [attachment=7051:snapshot_85.png] [attachment=7052:snapshot_86.png] Averaging the last three 20 week cycles gives June 13th as the date when the next 20 week and possible 40 week cycle are due. I say possibly with regard to the 40 week, as on the indexes the June-July 2006 lows , the March 2007 lows and the January 2008 lows are as a whole clearer than any low occuring in between the June 2006 low and the March 2007 low. Airedale used phasing techniques that are beyond my scope to identify a period in between those time frames and call it a 40 week low. Regardless of whether we are approaching a 20 week low or a 40 week low, we are certainly running out of time for a decline of importance. While I favor a low as late as the 2nd week of June I do recognize that a standard 40 weeks from the August 16th low gets us to just after May expiration. Another study showing we might be due for some kind of pullback into the 20 week or 40 week cycle is the total volume traded on the Nasdaq versus the NYSE. The 5 day moving average as you can see from the next chart is in the vicinity or higher than the October highs. [attachment=7053:snapshot_87.png] My forecast is a decline into early June with a possible higher high in the next three trading days. The nature of that decline is too early to determine. A muted decline over the next month would have strong bullish indications. I have included a half hourly chart . We could get lower projections in the next few hours to as low as the high 1380's or maybe just back to yesterday's low depending on if and when we get the cross. Again, recent projections to the dopwnside have fallen short. If that changes it may be warning of a change in character. [attachment=7054:snapshot_88.png]

Airedale would be proud...

Airedale would be proud...

Thanks Tea

I feel a little guilty posting with a slightly negative bias as I know Airedale was very bullish on the longer term. I'm just trying to stay relatively neutral and report what I see.

I can take these targets. But any boumces should be sold before the June low.

Spectacular Bid, Excellent work. I am sending this post to his brother, who also trades. However, in regards to your use of 8/16/8 as the 4.5 year low, Airedale emphatically stated over and over and over again to anyone who challenged him that 8/6/8 was the 4.5 year low and that 8/16/8 was a cycle straddle. He used the Hurst technique of full phasing analysis (FPA) to derive that date. Although this technique is beyond my scope, as well, I believe it involves a meticulous comparison of a complex of indices to derive the correct low. This would put your/our date slightly closer, however, as opposed to what I just said, Airedale also believed that hat the 8/16 date may influences future lows - somewhat of a 'bleed-through.' It also seems likely your 1431 will come into play more than my 1440. EXCELLENT work. Deva

hi spectacular bid,

Finally we have approached the outstanding 1431 projection given by the 10 week fld although we have not fully met that projection and could go a little bit higher.

Thank you for posting your analysis. I too have noted that the 5 week fld target was recently met off the March low, which has been the first time since October I believe. The 10 week fld is still outstanding. I was skeptical that any of these targets would be met given the weak performance in financials. The coming summer low is where I will make a big bet once again. In the mean time it will be trying to find swing trades on the short time frames.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 07 May 2008 - 01:17 PM.

Spectacular Bid,

This would put your/our date slightly closer, however, as opposed to what I just said, Airedale also believed that hat the 8/16 date may influences future lows - somewhat of a 'bleed-through.'

Deva

Thanks Deva
Yes I was counting on a little bleed through especially with the January and March lows being where they were in terms of time. FWIW the half hourly charts did give a projection to the 1385 area. The last three have fallen short.