The coming 9 month cycle bottom

http://nav-ta.blogsp...cle-bottom.html

come on nav you can do better we go up we can go down 9 month bottom in sep, october, november- will give us sóme answers well i may have had a couple of drinks too much, but three months for the 9 months bottom is too much for me let's make things simple for the bears CHALLENGE NUMBER 1 - CLOSE THE GAP ON COMPQ!

Edited by relax, 24 August 2008 - 12:55 AM.

come on nav you can do better

we go up we can go down

9 month bottom in sep, october, november- will give us sóme answers

well i may have had a couple of drinks too much, but three months for the 9 months bottom is too much for me

let's make things simple for the bears

CHALLENGE NUMBER 1 - CLOSE THE GAP ON COMPQ!

Firstly, RELAX !

Pay attention to the timeframe. If you want to know what the market does tommorow, i have different places to talk about that. That's what i do here on the TT. I call things in real-time here.

And BTW, end of Sep to first week of Nov is 5 weeks, not 3 months. 3 months = 12 weeks. You sure, you are not just on drinks. Maybe some good stuff
Since you claim, you did not understand my blog post, here it is for your benefit once again.

THERE IS A 9 MONTH CYCLE BOTTOM DUE LATE SEPTEMBER TO EARLY NOV. IF I COULD FORCE THE 9 MONTH CYCLE TO BOTTOM ON A PARTICULAR DAY, I WOULD. BUT I CAN'T. THE COMING 9 MONTH CYCLE BOTTOM, IF IT UNDERSHOOTS SPX 1200, THAT WOULD BE THE PRIMARY WAVE A OF 2 LOW, IMO. IF WE HOLD ABOVE 1200, THEN THAT WAVE A LOW HAS ALREADY OCCURED AT SPX 1200.

Edited by NAV, 24 August 2008 - 01:06 AM.

i don't know anything right now - a woman was too crazy for me don't really know what too conclude just know that bears need to close that compq gap if we have a top at august 11 - then plus 45-60 days could be a bottom - around 25 sep-10 october but let's see what the market gives us keep the reports comíng nav - always interesting! ;-) ps took me ages to write this reply ;-)

Let me be a little more precise... SPX will bottom on DEC 1 near 1110 SPX will top on March 10th 2009 near 1200 SPX will then put in a final bottom July 3rd 2009 near 1060. We will continue with daily chop with daily swings of 10/15 or more points

40 week may be obsolete. It hasnt been any good for a while now
They come and go and cant be considered without their higher order compliments.
Work with a 107 fundamental and it's components 35.7 & 26.7 weeks.

If it's going up, 15 days up, then it could be 4 months up to this time Dec,
then these are driving the show.

This is completely unconventional and unawares and just might be it.

If up in 15 days, this is the one. Might be some bear trappage Monday.

http://nav-ta.blogsp...cle-bottom.html

Edited by AChartist, 24 August 2008 - 09:40 AM.

The dominant weekly cycles are 3, ~6, 12, 24, 46-48, 90-92 wk cycles for the short term from the chart below. So, the dominant cycle is actually 46-48 wks and currently running much longer than the previous samples, counting from the July 2006 low, Aug 2007, January 2008 and July 2008 lows (with the 20-24 wk harmonics), this low is still due this mid to late December. There is also the secondary 8, 16 week harmonics, these are less dominant...



The last time 16 and 24 wk cycles bottomed in early July, so it is counter intuitive to expect the 48 wk cycle low ANY earlier either. Here the 12wk (60 days) and 24 wk cycles are super dominant, perhaps the 48 wk cycle low will be also very intense though.

This means we are approaching the 8 (Sep 8-10) and 12 wk cycle lows in early Oct (6-8), exactly 20 days later...

Now the shorter term cycles are a complete mess and it is hard to figure out whether we just had a 18 day low early or this is a new developing cyclical harmonics or about to see it next week. Personally, I favor here a low at the middle in the week (28-30 day low) and a nice bounce into early 1st week of Sep and then down to the 8 wk low into the second week of Sep, then a better bounce and then down to early Oct toward the 12 wk low...

The market is still half way through the 24 wk cycle in my work, so these cycle lows might not be very intense and rather a trading range. So, I expect the market to rally some and pull back some until the 8 wk low, then rally for a week and top at the middle of Sep (1350 round target) toward the 12 wk low in early Oct, then bounce for a week or two ahead of the Nov elections and then much lower by the Dec 46-48 wk low before the election results...

It should be obvious by now that the election rally here is having not much positive effect like it did in the previous cycles than a shock and awe effect of a nightmarish crash otherwise. But, I can tell you that once we make the highs in sometime in either mid Sep or mid to late Oct, the market is likely to remain in a downtrend into Dec low.

This will be the tax write off year!!!

I posted a chart here.

The bottom is in 3 weeks. By the power of my magically delicious fractal.

The bottom is in 3 weeks. By the power of my magically delicious fractal.

I think the top of this recovery rally is most probably in about 4 weeks...