fearful forecast

The more the market spends time below 1290-1300, the more the resistance builds up... The market has a minor 8wk cycle low in Sep --this in 2 weeks, then the 12wk cycle low in early Oct, then 46-48wk in late Dec, she needs to hold above these levels by the 8 wk cycle low at least for any rally from there in Sep. The most she should correct down to is the 1250 level on SPX basis by then. I still expect a top around mid to late Sep due to the pure cyclical reasons, but the momentum is dying quickly here and if she gets overbought below the resistance again from here, I am going to be prepared for the dive into that "minor" cycle low! For now, I am operating under the assumption of a trading range; sell resistance around 1290-1300, buy support around 1250-1260, not much reason to be excited in either direction as long as it remains within the weekly 40-45 points price range. Unfortunately, I missed the nice entry around 1260s yesterday for this 3 wk low rally, it happens, so I tried to buy a bit in the morning, but those are not "buy and hold", more like "buy and take profits when you get them". I will keep trading ST positions until the 8 wk cycle low, if it comes there, then I might have a better understanding about the time and price structure... We are definitely building a top from here. Good luck.

The ES 1287.5 is the channel top for this rally, it needs to close above it to prove anything, otherwise typical overbought under resistance, the 8 day cyclical low will target around 1250 on Fri...



(btw, I am not sure how you guys are seeing, but I see my charts magnified, how do I disable automatic magnification of my charts?)

Edited by arbman, 27 August 2008 - 02:20 PM.

Your charts are showing up the proper size from my point of view. Thank you for posting. Your perspective is much appreciated. Cheers.

(btw, I am not sure how you guys are seeing, but I see my charts magnified, how do I disable automatic magnification of my charts?)

It fits perfectly.

OK thanks for the feedback, but try this link directly and tell me whether the images appear in different sizes;

http://img392.images...104/es60mq4.png

This is my original upload to imageshack...

OK thanks for the feedback, but try this link directly and tell me whether the images appear in different sizes;

http://img392.images...104/es60mq4.png

This is my original upload to imageshack...

same size

Perhaps a touch to 1287 in the morning and then SPX should start the next 30 points decline. From the simple trendlines and looking at the weekly range of 45 points, any decline should probably stop, 1292-45 = 1247, target. The decline from Monday is 1292-1262 = 30 points, AB=CD targets (1247+30=) 1287 for the wave-B top. It's been pretty close today and closed at the top tick, so possibly the 1287 channel top might not even be hit, if it gaps down. I will probably sell short in the morning, I think it might give us one more day to position, like a doji or something...