I said they would have to shut down the exchanges

I accept it was an extreme reaction, then this came out, how about them apples?!?

Now they actually guaranteed that the market will crash by January, imho. I would appreciate if someone can explain me how the economy will magically start growing and sustain any price over 1300 on SPX basis because they are simply abusing the system even worse!

This appears to be a late 8wk cycle low as I mentioned a couple days ago. The market did not make a long term bottom, the 24wk low will be probably the greatest crash of all times. After the momentum of this move is depleted in a few weeks, I expect SPX to quickly drop below 1200 again by either the 12 or 16 wk lows and then the panic will take over...

Fed was instrumental in creating the panic ahead of this rule imho, while one can argue that the market was correcting to its fair value, the post-Fed decline was a setup, I doubt they can not do it again. So, for all practical purposes, the gov't is completely out of options from here.

If you think the gov't as one of the participants in the markets, they collapsed the commodity funds, now they are either collapsing or forcing the hedge funds out of the markets, so as a whole, the market is essentially depleting all of the "emergency" liquidity that it could tap into...

couldn't agree more..

I will have to disagree with you here. Have you ever seen this kind of panic, washout, emotions associated with a minor 8 week cycle low. If so, do you have any historical examples over the last 20-30 years where a 8 week cycle low has exhibited this kind of extreme ? Don't take this a critique, but as a curious question from a fellow technician. This one has the markings of a major cycle low.

Edited by NAV, 19 September 2008 - 10:23 AM.

NAV, I agree, but we are not living in a period where there is any historical example, all we know is this has been so far one in a hundred year occurance. So, what this will likely follow will probably prove my point, if you think of it within the context of a 20-30% one day decline that might be about to follow this decline in a few weeks or months. So far since Monday, Fed drained $50B, added back $92B and then drained $80B this morning and tomorrow they are set to drain another $20B. This is an absurd monetary policy to describe it mildly, it is completely a bear killing setup, the problem is not that they can not kill the bears, the problem is these actions are not creating the intended economic growth. If it starts to grow back, then I am all wrong...

NAV, I agree, but we are not living in a period where there is any historical example, all we know is this has been so far one in a hundred year occurance. So, what this will likely follow will probably prove my point, if you think of it within the context of a 20-30% one day decline that might be about to follow this decline in a few weeks or months.

So far since Monday, Fed drained $50B, added back $92B and then drained $80B this morning and tomorrow they are set to drain another $20B. This is an absurd monetary policy to describe it mildly, it is completely a bear killing setup, the problem is not that they can not kill the bears, the problem is these actions are not creating the intended economic growth. If it starts to grow back, then I am all wrong...

Indeed we live in crazy times !

NAV, I agree, but we are not living in a period where there is any historical example, all we know is this has been so far one in a hundred year occurance. So, what this will likely follow will probably prove my point, if you think of it within the context of a 20-30% one day decline that might be about to follow this decline in a few weeks or months.

So far since Monday, Fed drained $50B, added back $92B and then drained $80B this morning and tomorrow they are set to drain another $20B. This is an absurd monetary policy to describe it mildly, it is completely a bear killing setup, the problem is not that they can not kill the bears, the problem is these actions are not creating the intended economic growth. If it starts to grow back, then I am all wrong...

Indeed we live in crazy times !

How much time do you think it has arb for the 24 week to take hold.
Do you have an idea for the next 24 week low?
It looks like the extreme price is late with late bottoms, like we cant
underestimate them or front run the lows.

Although stocks that are not declining into these things are very profitable
on the other side.

This looks like some time here but not much higher than the current candle.

I have up in the shorter periods, longer periods only had 1-2 day wonder
in them and this would be all of that today or possibly into Monday.

This risk is unacceptable each weekend. Maybe they get through this
weekend and it starts with next weekend.

I am very sorry to say that this is how nations go bankrupt, the politicians inherently know what is right, it is the wall street firms forcing the decisions on the politicians. The US will have tremendous problems by not addressing the issues, but rather trying to institute trillion dollar bail out on taxpayers' money and get the people who are telling the right thing with their money to shut up by manipulating the money supply and changing the regulations. The interest rates will eventually go significantly higher by these inflationary actions, it won't change much for the mortgages and choke the economy and consumers...

Chartist, I usually hedge 90-100% every night or weekend in futures and only trade the day sessions. I just can not take any overnight risk, maybe 0.2-0.5% on the portfolio, but nothing more. My guess for the 24 wk low is at the end of the year, either Dec or January now that the cycles are getting longer and longer to bottom...

There is no education of what money is nor where it comes from for a reason. No one in that congress knows anything
or can challenge paulson factually while he has all the emotional momentum to
get anything they want.

I am very sorry to say that this is how nations go bankrupt, the politicians inherently know what is right, it is the wall street firms forcing the decisions on the politicians. The US will have tremendous problems by not addressing the issues, but rather trying to institute trillion dollar bail out on taxpayers' money and get the people who are telling the right thing with their money to shut up by manipulating the money supply and changing the regulations. The interest rates will eventually go significantly higher by these inflationary actions, it won't change much for the mortgages and choke the economy and consumers...