Par Trend MACD early warning radar update

These are finally coming around to respect the building divergences. If you missed earlier posts, this is a new MACD I've developed to forewarn of impending turns. The majority here are VST traders and could probably care less, since this was developed for my swing trading. I don't profess to have a working signal threshold for this, or that one can be developed... it simply alerts me to look into impending turning action. I showed four indices that were very diverse, two (TNX and USD) with projected outcomes that would actually be very much at odds (per conventional thought) with each other. Of the four, TNX was the most stubborn, but it finally succumbed. Hopefully, I'm cutting through some noise and getting to the actual "chosen" swing direction a bit before it occurs. If nothing else, it gives me lots of time to get prepared psychologically and do further research. Those are the most crucial elements for a swing trader, IMHO. You must be well prepared.

(note: the green MACD's on the StockChart charts are not the par-trend MACD's... StockCharts cannot accomodate formula input).


As for SPX, this chart got me long for this rally. I'm not claiming credit for that because I respect those who post entries real-time. I'm just claiming that I'm glad I have my charts. Wednesday's close nailed the reciprocative 200ma slope pitch (aka pendulum endpoint tag) from May of last year. I didn't share this with the board at the time because, well, I suffer from "performance anxiety" under certain conditions.



That May 2007 momentum high benchmark, BTW, is virtually 61.8% of the bull market's initiation 200ma slope pitch high (and the second-highest of that bull market. A perfect sympathetic echo. I've simply calibrated the Fibonacci envelopes to show that 2003 high as 161.8% of the 2007 high (therefore, the 2007 high is 61.8% of the 2003 high). Make sense?



For those who don't easily grasp a "wavy" zero line, here's a chart showing these peaks on a horizontal zero line chart. Unforunately, I can't show the Fib grid relationship since this program doesn't snap the Fib points to anything except price. But you can see (and scale for yourself) the reciprocal distances from the zero line between the 2007 peak and 2008 trough.