You've got the Fed
Be of Good Cheer Friends
Started by
IYB
, Sep 20 2008 01:36 AM
7 replies to this topic
#1
IYB
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Posted 20 September 2008 - 01:36 AM
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
#2
ken29
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Posted 20 September 2008 - 03:05 AM
Hey Don, what is your long term forecast? Any wild guess as to when this bear market is going to end?
#3
IYB
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Posted 20 September 2008 - 03:08 AM
Best guess Jan 2010 plus or minus 3 months......Regards, DHey Don, what is your long term forecast? Any wild guess as to when this bear market is going to end?
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
#4
ken29
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Posted 20 September 2008 - 03:20 AM
I still can't figure out what happen to the 4 year cycle low in 2006, did the Fed avoided the last 4 year cycle low with their printing press? 
#6
IYB
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Posted 20 September 2008 - 03:36 AM
It definitely threw me at the time- was looking for a "late top" in 2006, and it actually came in 2007. I have come to believe that the business cycle (4 years historically) has been replaced by the "bubble cycle", a la dot.com bubble, real estate bubble, and what next? Maybe Alt energy bubble? We'll see. The 4 year cycle has been replaced by the bubble cycle de jour....I still can't figure out what happen to the 4 year cycle low in 2006, did the Fed avoided the last 4 year cycle low with their printing press?
The important thing, though, in my humble opinion, is to recognize the context in which we are operating at any given time. Context overrides nearly everything. And the current context is cyclcal bear market within secular bear trend.
Good Trading, D
Edited by IYB, 20 September 2008 - 03:39 AM.
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
#7
pdx5
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I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 20 September 2008 - 12:22 PM
I still can't figure out what happen to the 4 year cycle low in 2006, did the Fed avoided the last 4 year cycle low with their printing press?
Pretty much. Those 1% interest rates combined with the house price mania has
delayed the cycle. So, now expect a doubling of the magnitude for the next low.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
#8
U.F.O.
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Posted 20 September 2008 - 01:41 PM
I think part of the effort to solve this crisis may ultimately be a behind the scenes attempt to re-create a mini refi wave with constraints on the type of loan available to be refied into. No teaser or option ARMs that can explode on the 1st reset etc. If mortgage rates go just a bit lower this is exactly what will happen. A bit of methadone for the withdrawing patient. A way to swap many of the bad loans into products with lower rates and more affordable payments.
U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~
~Benjamin Franklin~
