LT update

http://nav-ta.blogsp...date-voila.html

The outrage over the govt intervention and disbeleif in the rally, will ensure that the bus will never get loaded on this upleg.

NAV, the equity P/C ratio was 0.5, the closing P/C was 0.8, OEX P/C was over 1.

What disbelief?!?

http://www.care2.com...01261184/881763

The outrage over the govt intervention and disbeleif in the rally, will ensure that the bus will never get loaded on this upleg.

NAV, the equity P/C ratio was 0.5, the closing P/C was 0.8, OEX P/C was over 1.

What disbelief?!?

P/C - 0.5 - It may lead to a VST pullback. That is if they don't pull an other gap-up on Monday.

If one says that the low P/C will cause the rally to halt in tracks, that by definition, is disbelief . Kidding aside, all these ST measures are good for 1-2 days adjustments. They don't determine the trend.

http://www.care2.com...01261184/881763

Paranoia.

http://nav-ta.blogsp...date-voila.html

Excellent work Nav....Just read your blog.
I too believe we saw our lows for this year based on all the crash level technicals and we won't have a new low until march or april at the earliest.

http://nav-ta.blogsp...date-voila.html

NAV, thanks for sharing your thoughts..........looking at the NYSE Ratio Adj MCO, I do not see any divergence, rather I see a move back to the zero line which could mean a lower low in the NYSE with a higher low in the MCO, that would be a higher confidence bottom, imho any rally from here is doomed to a retest......also Carl Swenlin's timing for 9 month low is closer to end of October fwiw, having said all this, there is a nice positive divergence in SPY with OBV on the daily.....not sure how reliable OBV divergences are tho.

CW

http://www.etfinvest...vance_decline_d

The outrage over the govt intervention and disbeleif in the rally, will ensure that the bus will never get loaded on this upleg.

NAV, the equity P/C ratio was 0.5, the closing P/C was 0.8, OEX P/C was over 1.

What disbelief?!?

P/C - 0.5 - It may lead to a VST pullback. That is if they don't pull an other gap-up on Monday.

If one says that the low P/C will cause the rally to halt in tracks, that by definition, is disbelief . Kidding aside, all these ST measures are good for 1-2 days adjustments. They don't determine the trend.

I've been wrong before, I will be again, but this is how I see this;

A Long term bottom when the money supply is shrinking and people are speculating for higher prices?!? This is nuts. This is just a well orchestrated bounce, we are months away from the IT and LT lows, imo...

DO NOT LOOK for the bottom in the stock market, but in the bond market instead, this is where the problem is; the equities closed higher this week, the CDX actually made a break out to the upside and tested the break out neck line with the equity reversal, it didn't come down below the last week's lows! They are sitting on the break out line as of Friday's close. So, who is leading here? WHY? Didn't you see the 30 yr bond as of Friday's close?!? What does it mean?!?

There will not be any long term bottom before the money supply starts growing again, even then, there is a tremendous problem and this removal of the bad loans do not make new money available for an economic recovery. It is just that less banks will go bankrupt on taxpayers' expense, that's all.

The rescue is DOA with the inflationary effects on the economy, not only the strain it will put on the gov't and taxpayers. The debt market is still locked up and now they are promising more liquidity with substantial inflation which has no economic value anyway. Any rescue will continue to choke the real estate market, the bank failures will be reduced, but there is no new growth story here.

This market needs a reset and it is getting it one way or another, the gov't is trying as hard as they can to slow it down, it will not work. My technical take, this market will make new lows in October probably by the short selling ban, bounce on short sellers' money in October and then go straight down by Thanksgiving (possible crash) to bounce and make even a lower low before the year is out...

Unfortunately, it will be probably an absolute desperation down there for any money, I will buy it there.

Good luck.

The outrage over the govt intervention and disbeleif in the rally, will ensure that the bus will never get loaded on this upleg.

NAV, the equity P/C ratio was 0.5, the closing P/C was 0.8, OEX P/C was over 1.

What disbelief?!?

P/C - 0.5 - It may lead to a VST pullback. That is if they don't pull an other gap-up on Monday.

If one says that the low P/C will cause the rally to halt in tracks, that by definition, is disbelief . Kidding aside, all these ST measures are good for 1-2 days adjustments. They don't determine the trend.

I've been wrong before, I will be again, but this is how I see this;

A Long term bottom when the money supply is shrinking and people are speculating for higher prices?!? This is nuts. This is just a well orchestrated bounce, we are months away from the IT and LT lows, imo...

DO NOT LOOK for the bottom in the stock market, but in the bond market instead, this is where the problem is; the equities closed higher this week, the CDX actually made a break out to the upside and tested the break out neck line with the equity reversal, it didn't come down below the last week's lows! They are sitting on the break out line as of Friday's close. So, who is leading here? WHY? Didn't you see the 30 yr bond as of Friday's close?!? What does it mean?!?

There will not be any long term bottom before the money supply starts growing again, even then, there is a tremendous problem and this removal of the bad loans do not make new money available for an economic recovery. It is just that less banks will go bankrupt on taxpayers' expense, that's all.

The rescue is DOA with the inflationary effects on the economy, not only the strain it will put on the gov't and taxpayers. The debt market is still locked up and now they are promising more liquidity with substantial inflation which has no economic value anyway. Any rescue will continue to choke the real estate market, the bank failures will be reduced, but there is no new growth story here.

This market needs a reset and it is getting it one way or another, the gov't is trying as hard as they can to slow it down, it will not work. My technical take, this market will make new lows in October probably by the short selling ban, bounce on short sellers' money in October and then go straight down by Thanksgiving (possible crash) to bounce and make even a lower low before the year is out...

Unfortunately, it will be probably an absolute desperation down there for any money, I will buy it there.

Good luck.

The LT bottom you are talking about will probably come in 2010 when the primary wave C of 2 bottoms. That bottom would not be a result of govt intervention, but as a result of true investor capitulation and basement bargain value in stocks, when the economic conditions will be at its worse, when most common man will be worrying about his daily bread and not stocks, real estate or Gold. That's thinking too far to me and there are 1000 variables which will affect that outcome. I am just focussing on the next 6-12 months. The longer the timeframe, the larger of margin of error in this business is.